OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Diyar Nurgozhay 66% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Diyar Nurgozhay / KO/TKO)

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes

Diyar Nurgozhay
KazakhstanKazakhstan

Diyar Nurgozhay

Unranked · 12-2 · striker · Southpaw · 29 · IQ C 59

Arlan MMA Pro Team · Kazakhstan

VS
Bruno Lopes
BrazilBrazil

Bruno Lopes

“Brunao”

Unranked · 14-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 67

011 MMA Team · Brazil

Diyar Nurgozhay

66.1%

Bruno Lopes

33.9%

Model win probability · confidence 61%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nurgozhay 66 — the tape favors pocket striker

Diyar Nurgozhay is the model side at 66.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Nurgozhay 67 (C+) vs Lopes 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nurgozhay (4.5 SLpM at 61%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Nurgozhay

    Nurgozhay 67 (C+) vs Lopes 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nurgozhay (4.5 SLpM at 61%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Lopes

    Lopes 66 (C+) vs Nurgozhay 53 (C). When the shot comes, Lopes stuffs it at 77% — Nurgozhay is at 80%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Nurgozhay

    Nurgozhay 52 (C) vs Lopes 41 (D). Nurgozhay's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Lopes's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Lopes

    Lopes 67 (C+) vs Nurgozhay 59 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lopes (C+ vs C).

Path · Nurgozhay

Volume. Nurgozhay wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Lopes a clean reset.

Path · Lopes

Lopes wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nurgozhay a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Nurgozhay is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Lopes is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Lopes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Nurgozhay 67 (C+) vs Lopes 43 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nurgozhay (4.5 SLpM at 61%). Takedown reaction: Lopes 66 (C+) vs Nurgozhay 53 (C). When the shot comes, Lopes stuffs it at 77% — Nurgozhay is at 80%. Counter punching: Nurgozhay 52 (C) vs Lopes 41 (D). Nurgozhay's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Lopes's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NurgozhayTraitLopes
59 C
IQ
67 C+
39 D
Ground
37 D
67 C+
Defense
63 C+
52 C
Counter
41 D
66 C+
Reaction
62 C+
67 C+
Agility
43 D
53 C
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
37%
Submission
13%
Decision
50%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

15%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.50 vs -0.71 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Nurgozhay

  • Damage ratio

    1.50 vs 0.80 landed/absorbed

    Nurgozhay

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.52 vs 2.88

    Nurgozhay

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Nurgozhay

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 50%

    Nurgozhay

  • Fight IQ

    C 59 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lopes

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Lopes

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 41

    Nurgozhay

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 62%

    Lopes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Nurgozhay

  • Ground game (tape)

    39 vs 37

    Nurgozhay

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nurgozhay

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nurgozhay

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Nurgozhay

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nurgozhay

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 33

    Nurgozhay

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Nurgozhay

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Nurgozhay

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 77%

    Nurgozhay

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 74.0"

    Nurgozhay

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nurgozhay

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nurgozhay

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nurgozhay

Tape

NurgozhayMetricLopes
4.52SLpM2.88
3.02SApM3.59
61%Str Acc50%
59%Str Def62%
1.37TD Avg1.93
75%TD Acc22%
80%TD Def77%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.40KD/150.16
6'2"Reach6'2"
29Age33

Diyar Nurgozhay

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bruno Lopes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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