OctagonEdge

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Regina Tarin 67% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

JJ Aldrich
USAUSA

JJ Aldrich

Unranked · 15-7 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C 57

Tiger Beetle Martial Arts · USA

VS
Regina Tarin
MexicoMexico

Regina Tarin

“Kill Bill”

Unranked · 8-0 · striker · Southpaw · 21 · IQ B+ 76

Bonebreakers MMA · Mexico

JJ Aldrich

33.2%

Regina Tarin

66.8%

Model win probability · confidence 76%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Tarin 67 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Regina Tarin is the model side at 66.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Aldrich 45 (D) vs Tarin 25 (D). Aldrich's return is the live one (0.13 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Tarin's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Aldrich

    Aldrich 45 (D) vs Tarin 25 (D). Aldrich's return is the live one (0.13 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Tarin's entries.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Tarin

    Tarin 76 (B+) vs Aldrich 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tarin (B+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Tarin

    Tarin 68 (C+) vs Aldrich 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Tarin (7.6 SLpM at 50%).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Tarin

    Tarin 29 (D) vs Aldrich 20 (D). Tarin brings 1.0 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Aldrich's 82% takedown defense.

Path · Aldrich

Aldrich wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Tarin a long look at durability.

Path · Tarin

Tarin has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Aldrich defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Tarin is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Aldrich is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +20 toward Tarin — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Aldrich 45 (D) vs Tarin 25 (D). Aldrich's return is the live one (0.13 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Tarin's entries. Fight IQ: Tarin 76 (B+) vs Aldrich 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tarin (B+ vs C). Punching agility: Tarin 68 (C+) vs Aldrich 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Tarin (7.6 SLpM at 50%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (57%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AldrichTraitTarin
57 C
IQ
76 B+
20 D
Ground
29 D
65 C+
Defense
73 B
45 D
Counter
25 D
64 C+
Reaction
61 C+
50 C
Agility
68 C+
59 C
TD react
67 C+
91 A+
Chin
87 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
23%
Submission
20%
Decision
57%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

57%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    1.21 vs 2.19 landed/absorbed

    Tarin

  • Striking differential

    0.65 vs 2.03 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tarin

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs B+ 76 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Tarin

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 25

    Aldrich

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Tarin

  • Ground game (tape)

    20 vs 29

    Tarin

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 55%

    Aldrich

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Tarin

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Tarin

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Tarin

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 21

    Tarin

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tarin

  • Reach / length

    67.5" vs 66.0"

    Aldrich

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Aldrich

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 48%

    Tarin

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Aldrich

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 54 vs 48

    Aldrich

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tarin

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.77 vs 3.74

    Aldrich

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 84%

    Tarin

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Aldrich

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aldrich

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Aldrich

Tape

AldrichMetricTarin
3.92SLpM7.60
3.23SApM1.94
51%Str Acc50%
60%Str Def53%
0.70TD Avg1.00
26%TD Acc33%
82%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.13KD/150.10
5'8"Reach5'6"
33Age21

JJ Aldrich

W

Fighter 4689227

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 18, 2026
W

Fighter 3153106

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 1, 2025
L

Fighter 4044708

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 11, 2024
W

Fighter 4046629

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 7, 2023
W

Fighter 4295932

KO/TKO · R2 4:49

Aug 26, 2023
L

Fighter 4227318

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 11, 2023

Regina Tarin

W

Fighter 5149147

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 28, 2026
W

Fighter 5338122

KO/TKO · R1 2:00

Nov 29, 2025
W

Fighter 4244337

KO/TKO · R2 4:16

Jun 19, 2025
W

Fighter 5173771

KO/TKO · R4 2:27

Sep 27, 2024
W

Fighter 5309136

KO/TKO · R1 1:55

Jul 27, 2024
W

Fighter 5338121

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 3:14

Jun 8, 2024

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