Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Yousri Belgaroui 82% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result
Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui
USAKelvin Gastelum
Unranked · 21-11 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C+ 61
Fight Ready · USA
NetherlandsYousri Belgaroui
Unranked · 10-3 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ B 74
Teixeira MMA & Fitness · Netherlands
Kelvin Gastelum
17.8%
Yousri Belgaroui
82.2%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Belgaroui 82 — the tape favors power striker
Yousri Belgaroui is the model side at 82.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Gastelum 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%).
- 01
Punching agility
BelgarouiBelgaroui 82 (B+) vs Gastelum 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%).
- 02
Counter punching
BelgarouiBelgaroui 66 (C+) vs Gastelum 41 (D). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Gastelum's entries.
- 03
Takedown reaction
BelgarouiBelgaroui 68 (B) vs Gastelum 52 (C). When the shot comes, Belgaroui stuffs it at 84% — Gastelum is at 81%.
- 04
Fight IQ
BelgarouiBelgaroui 74 (B) vs Gastelum 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Belgaroui (B vs C+).
Path · Gastelum
Gastelum wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Belgaroui a long look at durability.
Path · Belgaroui
Volume. Belgaroui wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Gastelum a clean reset.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gastelum attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Belgaroui is built as: Power striker. Gastelum is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Belgaroui — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Belgaroui 82 (B+) vs Gastelum 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Belgaroui (6.1 SLpM at 66%). Counter punching: Belgaroui 66 (C+) vs Gastelum 41 (D). Belgaroui's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Gastelum's entries. Takedown reaction: Belgaroui 68 (B) vs Gastelum 52 (C). When the shot comes, Belgaroui stuffs it at 84% — Gastelum is at 81%.
The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 12% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gastelum attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
16%
R3
14%
Dist
40%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.98 vs 3.62 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
BelgarouiDamage ratio
1.40 vs 2.61 landed/absorbed
BelgarouiRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
BelgarouiStriking efficiency
45% vs 65%
BelgarouiOutput (SLpM)
3.44 vs 5.88
BelgarouiPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
BelgarouiFight IQ
C+ 61 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
BelgarouiCounter punching
41 vs 66
BelgarouiTakedown reaction
81% vs 84% hips on the shot
BelgarouiReach / length
71.5" vs 79.0"
BelgarouiGround game (tape)
33 vs 27
GastelumTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
BelgarouiGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
GastelumCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
BelgarouiPocket defense (tape)
B vs B
BelgarouiStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 62 vs 54
GastelumStriking defense
57% vs 58%
BelgarouiTakedown mismatch
TD def 80% vs 86%
BelgarouiStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
GastelumDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
GastelumAge-adjusted curve
34 vs 34
GastelumLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
GastelumChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Gastelum
Tape
Kelvin Gastelum
Vicente Luque
Submission · R1 4:08
Fighter 4685871
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4684135
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4426312
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4295192
Submission · R3 1:43
Fighter 2984770
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Yousri Belgaroui
Fighter 5211221
KO/TKO · R3 3:39
Fighter 5123963
KO/TKO · R3 0:55
Fighter 5224461
KO/TKO · R3 2:34
Fighter 5086821
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 5214600
KO/TKO · R1 4:59
Fighter 5138111
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.