Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Joseph Morales 69% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
MexicoBrandon Moreno
“The Assassin Baby”
#2 · 23-10-2 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 58
Fortis MMA · Mexico
USAJoseph Morales
“Bopo”
Unranked · 15-2 · grappler · Switch · 31 · IQ B 71
Team Alpha Male · USA
Brandon Moreno
30.7%
Joseph Morales
69.3%
Model win probability · confidence 80%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Morales 69 — the tape favors submission hunter
Joseph Morales is the model side at 69.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Morales (ground 62) into Moreno (TD reaction 33). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Morales 67 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Morales stuffs it at 80% — Moreno is at 46%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
MoralesMorales 67 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Morales stuffs it at 80% — Moreno is at 46%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
MoralesMorales 63 (C+) vs Moreno 39 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Morales.
- 03
Ground game
MoralesMorales 62 (C+) vs Moreno 43 (D). Morales brings 1.1 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Moreno's 46% takedown defense.
- 04
Fight IQ
MoralesMorales 71 (B) vs Moreno 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Morales (B vs C).
Path · Moreno
Moreno has to stuff the first takedown (33 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Morales
Morales has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Moreno defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Morales is built as: Submission hunter. Moreno is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Morales — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Morales 67 (C+) vs Moreno 33 (D). When the shot comes, Morales stuffs it at 80% — Moreno is at 46%. Timing & reaction: Morales 63 (C+) vs Moreno 39 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Morales. Ground game: Morales 62 (C+) vs Moreno 43 (D). Morales brings 1.1 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Moreno's 46% takedown defense.
The finish path leans the mat (54% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
20%
R3
23%
Dist
26%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Morales (ground 62) into Moreno (TD reaction 33). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 7/6 UFC rows
MoralesTakedown reaction
46% vs 80% hips on the shot
MoralesGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
MoralesGround game (tape)
43 vs 62
MoralesFight IQ
C 58 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
MoralesOutput (SLpM)
3.58 vs 1.56
MorenoTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
MoralesDamage ratio
0.65 vs 0.43 landed/absorbed
MorenoStriking defense
61% vs 66%
MoralesPocket defense (tape)
C vs C+
MoralesStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Morales (ground 62) into Moreno (TD reaction 33). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
MoralesCounter punching
44 vs 36
MorenoStriking differential
-1.89 vs -2.10 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
MorenoCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
MoralesDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
MoralesStriking efficiency
50% vs 46%
MorenoTakedown mismatch
TD def 45% vs 83%
MoralesReach / length
70.0" vs 68.0"
MorenoPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
MorenoStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 60 vs 56
MorenoAge-adjusted curve
32 vs 31
MoralesLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
MorenoChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Moreno
Tape
Brandon Moreno
Fighter 5147737
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4917772
KO/TKO · R2 2:24
Fighter 4997217
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4684848
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Brandon Royval
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Alexandre Pantoja
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Alexandre Pantoja
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Joseph Morales
Fighter 2994349
Submission · R1 2:54
Fighter 5264470
Submission · R2 3:04
Fighter 5289578
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 3955573
Submission (Triangle Choke) · R3 4:46
Fighter 3031558
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4578840
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Your pick
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