Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva

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Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Silva is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Rodriguez is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +8 toward Silva — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Silva 65 (C+) vs Rodriguez 41 (D). Silva absorbs 2.30/min at 50% defense; Rodriguez is a softer target at 4.53 SApM. Timing & reaction: Silva 58 (C) vs Rodriguez 35 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Silva. Punching agility: Silva 73 (B) vs Rodriguez 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Silva (4.8 SLpM at 52%).

The finish path leans strikes (49% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rodriguez attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.