OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Bogdan Guskov 53% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored miss (Magomed Ankalaev / KO/TKO)

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov

Magomed Ankalaev
RussiaRussia

Magomed Ankalaev

Unranked · 22-2-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C 60

Gorets · Russia

VS
Bogdan Guskov
UzbekistanUzbekistan

Bogdan Guskov

“Czarevitch”

Unranked · 18-4-1 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ B 69

GOR MMA · Uzbekistan

Magomed Ankalaev

47.2%

Bogdan Guskov

52.8%

Model win probability · confidence 45%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Guskov 53 — the tape favors pocket striker

Bogdan Guskov is the model side at 52.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Guskov 69 (B) vs Ankalaev 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Guskov (B vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Guskov

    Guskov 69 (B) vs Ankalaev 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Guskov (B vs C).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Guskov

    Guskov 61 (C+) vs Ankalaev 54 (C). When the shot comes, Guskov stuffs it at 85% — Ankalaev is at 82%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Ankalaev

    Ankalaev 62 (C+) vs Guskov 57 (C). Ankalaev's return is the live one (0.75 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Guskov's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Ankalaev

    Ankalaev 64 (C+) vs Guskov 60 (C). Hand speed / output lean Ankalaev (3.6 SLpM at 61%).

Path · Ankalaev

Ankalaev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Guskov a long look at durability.

Path · Guskov

Guskov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Ankalaev a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Guskov is built as: Pocket striker. Ankalaev is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Guskov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Guskov 69 (B) vs Ankalaev 60 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Guskov (B vs C). Takedown reaction: Guskov 61 (C+) vs Ankalaev 54 (C). When the shot comes, Guskov stuffs it at 85% — Ankalaev is at 82%. Counter punching: Ankalaev 62 (C+) vs Guskov 57 (C). Ankalaev's return is the live one (0.75 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Guskov's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (42% KO/TKO vs 21% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AnkalaevTraitGuskov
60 C
IQ
69 B
21 D
Ground
24 D
64 C+
Defense
64 C+
62 C+
Counter
57 C
68 B
Reaction
68 B
64 C+
Agility
60 C
54 C
TD react
61 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
42%
Submission
21%
Decision
37%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

17%

R3

13%

R4

2%

R5

2%

Dist

37%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Fight IQ

    C 60 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Guskov

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Guskov

  • Counter punching

    62 vs 57

    Ankalaev

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 24

    Guskov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Guskov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Ankalaev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ankalaev

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 76.0"

    Guskov

  • Striking differential

    0.33 vs 0.26 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ankalaev

  • Striking efficiency

    61% vs 63%

    Guskov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 33

    Guskov

  • Damage ratio

    1.10 vs 1.08 landed/absorbed

    Ankalaev

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.65 vs 3.60

    Ankalaev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 85%

    Guskov

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 61%

    Guskov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Ankalaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ankalaev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ankalaev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Ankalaev

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Ankalaev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ankalaev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Ankalaev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ankalaev

Tape

AnkalaevMetricGuskov
3.65SLpM3.60
3.32SApM3.34
61%Str Acc63%
61%Str Def61%
0.79TD Avg0.00
22%TD Acc0%
82%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.68
0.75KD/150.37
6'3"Reach6'4"
34Age33

Magomed Ankalaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bogdan Guskov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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