OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ezra Elliott 54% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Ezra Elliott / Decision - Unanimous)

Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson

Ezra Elliott
USAUSA

Ezra Elliott

Unranked · 8-0 · hybrid · -- · 26 · IQ B 70

MMA LAB · USA

VS
Damien Anderson
USAUSA

Damien Anderson

“Demon Hands”

Unranked · 5-1 · hybrid · Southpaw · 29 · IQ C+ 62

Simple Man Martial Arts · USA

Ezra Elliott

53.6%

Damien Anderson

46.4%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Elliott 54 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Ezra Elliott is the model side at 53.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Elliott 70 (B) vs Anderson 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Elliott (B vs C+).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Elliott

    Elliott 70 (B) vs Anderson 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Elliott (B vs C+).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Elliott

    Elliott 74 (B) vs Anderson 69 (B). Elliott has been finished by strikes 0 times; Anderson 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Anderson

    Anderson 38 (D) vs Elliott 37 (D). Anderson's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Elliott's entries.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Elliott

    Elliott 21 (D) vs Anderson 21 (D). Elliott brings 0.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Anderson's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Elliott

Elliott wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Anderson a long look at their first weapon.

Path · Anderson

Anderson wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Elliott a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Elliott is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Anderson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +8 toward Elliott — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Elliott 70 (B) vs Anderson 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Elliott (B vs C+). Durability: Elliott 74 (B) vs Anderson 69 (B). Elliott has been finished by strikes 0 times; Anderson 0. Counter punching: Anderson 38 (D) vs Elliott 37 (D). Anderson's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Elliott's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ElliottTraitAnderson
70 B
IQ
62 C+
21 D
Ground
21 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
38 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
39 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
74 B
Chin
69 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
30%
Decision
49%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

17%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Elliott

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 69.0"

    Elliott

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Elliott

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Elliott

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 29

    Elliott

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Elliott

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 38

    Anderson

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Elliott

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Elliott

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Elliott

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Elliott

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Elliott

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Elliott

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Elliott

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Elliott

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Elliott

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Elliott

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Elliott

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 21

    Elliott

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Elliott

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Elliott

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Elliott

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Elliott

Tape

ElliottMetricAnderson
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'9"
26Age29

Ezra Elliott

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Damien Anderson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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