OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Navajo Stirling 79% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored hit (Navajo Stirling / KO/TKO)

Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling

Jan Blachowicz
PolandPoland

Jan Blachowicz

Champion · 29-12-2 · striker · Orthodox · 43 · IQ C+ 67

Berkut WCA Fight Team · Poland

VS
Navajo Stirling
New ZealandNew Zealand

Navajo Stirling

Unranked · 11-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 66

City Kickboxing · New Zealand

Jan Blachowicz

20.8%

Navajo Stirling

79.2%

Model win probability · confidence 84%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Stirling 79 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Navajo Stirling is the model side at 79.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Blachowicz (ground 38) into Stirling (TD reaction 68). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Stirling 85 (A) vs Blachowicz 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Stirling

    Stirling 85 (A) vs Blachowicz 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 68 (C+) vs Blachowicz 47 (D). When the shot comes, Stirling stuffs it at 82% — Blachowicz is at 70%.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Stirling

    Stirling 73 (B) vs Blachowicz 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stirling.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Blachowicz

    Blachowicz 38 (D) vs Stirling 22 (D). Blachowicz brings 1.0 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Stirling's 82% takedown defense.

Path · Blachowicz

Blachowicz has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Stirling defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Stirling

Stirling has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Blachowicz attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Stirling is built as: Volume pressure striker. Blachowicz is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Blachowicz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Stirling 85 (A) vs Blachowicz 52 (C). Hand speed / output lean Stirling (6.5 SLpM at 58%). Takedown reaction: Stirling 68 (C+) vs Blachowicz 47 (D). When the shot comes, Stirling stuffs it at 82% — Blachowicz is at 70%. Timing & reaction: Stirling 73 (B) vs Blachowicz 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Stirling.

The finish path leans strikes (54% KO/TKO vs 15% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Blachowicz attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BlachowiczTraitStirling
67 C+
IQ
66 C+
38 D
Ground
22 D
72 B
Defense
73 B
52 C
Counter
50 D
57 C
Reaction
73 B
52 C
Agility
85 A
47 D
TD react
68 C+
69 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
54%
Submission
15%
Decision
31%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

35%

R2

18%

R3

16%

Dist

31%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Blachowicz (ground 38) into Stirling (TD reaction 68).

  • Striking differential

    0.65 vs 4.13 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Stirling

  • Damage ratio

    1.30 vs 2.76 landed/absorbed

    Stirling

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 5/0 UFC rows

    Stirling

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.83 vs 6.47

    Stirling

  • Takedown reaction

    70% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Stirling

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Stirling

  • Ground game (tape)

    38 vs 22

    Blachowicz

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Stirling

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Stirling

  • Age-adjusted curve

    43 vs 28

    Stirling

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Blachowicz

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 69 vs 50

    Blachowicz

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 58%

    Stirling

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 55%

    Blachowicz

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Blachowicz (ground 38) into Stirling (TD reaction 68).

    Blachowicz

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 50

    Blachowicz

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 79.0"

    Stirling

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 67 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Blachowicz

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Blachowicz

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 68% vs 82%

    Stirling

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Stirling

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Blachowicz

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Blachowicz

Tape

BlachowiczMetricStirling
3.53SLpM6.47
2.00SApM2.34
58%Str Acc58%
60%Str Def55%
0.97TD Avg0.82
49%TD Acc25%
70%TD Def82%
0.36Sub Avg0.00
0.00KD/151.02
6'6"Reach6'7"
43Age28

Jan Blachowicz

L

Fighter 5216713

KO/TKO · R1 2:56

Aug 1, 2026
D

Fighter 5152109

Draw · R3 5:00

Dec 7, 2025
L

Fighter 4695736

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 22, 2025
L

Fighter 4705658

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jul 30, 2023
D

Fighter 4273399

Draw · R5 5:00

Dec 11, 2022
W

Aleksandar Rakic

KO/TKO · R3 1:11

May 15, 2022
L

Glover Teixeira

Submission · R2 3:02

Oct 30, 2021

Navajo Stirling

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.