Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5 · · 3 rounds
Opponent TBA vs TBA
Opponent TBA
50.0%
TBA
50.0%
Model win probability · confidence 42%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
TBA 50 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Opponent TBA is the model side at 50.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: TBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D).
- 01
Fight IQ
TBATBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D).
- 02
Ground game
TBATBA 12 (D) vs TBA 12 (D). TBA brings 0.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into TBA's 85% takedown defense.
- 03
Takedown reaction
TBATBA 69 (B) vs TBA 69 (B). When the shot comes, TBA stuffs it at 85% — TBA is at 85%.
- 04
Striking defense
TBATBA 57 (C) vs TBA 57 (C). TBA absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; TBA is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.
Path · TBA
TBA wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying TBA a long look at their first weapon.
Path · TBA
TBA wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying TBA a long look at their first weapon.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. TBA is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. TBA is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward TBA — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: TBA 43 (D) vs TBA 43 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with TBA (D vs D). Ground game: TBA 12 (D) vs TBA 12 (D). TBA brings 0.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into TBA's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: TBA 69 (B) vs TBA 69 (B). When the shot comes, TBA stuffs it at 85% — TBA is at 85%.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (71%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.
Duration
R1
12%
R2
8%
R3
10%
Dist
71%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.7 minutes.
Style matchup
hybrid meets hybrid.
Striking differential
-4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
TBADamage ratio
0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed
TBAOutput (SLpM)
0.00 vs 0.00
TBAStriking efficiency
0% vs 0%
TBAStriking defense
68% vs 68%
TBAGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
TBATakedown mismatch
TD def 85% vs 85%
TBAReach / length
1.0" vs 1.0"
TBAAge-adjusted curve
0 vs 0
TBARecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows
TBAStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 50 vs 50
TBACardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
TBAStyle interaction
hybrid meets hybrid.
TBALayoff / rust
Time since last fight
TBAChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
TBAFight IQ
D 43 vs D 43 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
TBAGround game (tape)
12 vs 12
TBATakedown reaction
85% vs 85% hips on the shot
TBAPocket defense (tape)
C vs C
TBACounter punching
37 vs 37
TBATiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
TBAPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
TBADurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
TBA
Tape
Opponent TBA
No recent UFC tape in the book.
TBA
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
Desk briefing
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