OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Patrick Rivera vs Adam Darby

PR
USAUSA

Patrick Rivera

Unranked · 13-4 · hybrid · -- · 34 · IQ C 56

Crazy 88 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu · USA

VS
AD
IrelandIreland

Adam Darby

“The Plank”

Unranked · 8-1 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ B 73

Team Ryano MMA · Ireland

Patrick Rivera

43.4%

Adam Darby

56.6%

Model win probability · confidence 65%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Darby 57 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Adam Darby is the model side at 56.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Darby 73 (B) vs Rivera 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Darby (B vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Darby

    Darby 73 (B) vs Rivera 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Darby (B vs C).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Darby

    Darby 69 (B) vs Rivera 55 (C). When the shot comes, Darby stuffs it at 85% — Rivera is at 85%.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Darby

    Darby 59 (C) vs Rivera 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Darby.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Darby

    Darby 39 (D) vs Rivera 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Darby (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

Path · Rivera

Rivera wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Darby a long look at durability.

Path · Darby

Darby wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Rivera a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Darby is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Rivera is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Darby — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Darby 73 (B) vs Rivera 56 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Darby (B vs C). Takedown reaction: Darby 69 (B) vs Rivera 55 (C). When the shot comes, Darby stuffs it at 85% — Rivera is at 85%. Timing & reaction: Darby 59 (C) vs Rivera 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Darby.

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RiveraTraitDarby
56 C
IQ
73 B
19 D
Ground
19 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
39 D
55 C
TD react
69 B
84 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
33%
Decision
44%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Darby

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Darby

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 76.0"

    Darby

  • Age-adjusted curve

    34 vs 27

    Darby

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Darby

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Darby

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 19

    Rivera

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Darby

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Rivera

  • Striking differential

    -3.76 vs -3.76 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rivera

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 70%

    Rivera

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rivera

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Rivera

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Darby

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Rivera

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Rivera

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 88%

    Rivera

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rivera

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Rivera

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Rivera

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Rivera

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Rivera

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Rivera

Tape

RiveraMetricDarby
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach—
34Age27

Patrick Rivera

W

Fighter 3032282

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R3 1:26

Mar 28, 2026
W

Fighter 4239070

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 0:30

Nov 15, 2025
W

Fighter 5157702

TKO (Strikes) · R1 0:42

Jul 12, 2025
W

Fighter 4888602

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 29, 2025
W

Fighter 4021515

KO/TKO · R1 1:18

Mar 30, 2024
W

Fighter 5211351

KO/TKO · R1 2:15

Oct 7, 2023

Adam Darby

W

Fighter 5399502

Submission (Ninja Choke) · R1 1:22

Feb 21, 2026
W

Fighter 5399501

KO/TKO · R3 3:41

Sep 27, 2025
W

Fighter 4011879

KO/TKO · R2 4:56

Jun 27, 2025
W

Fighter 5201323

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 26, 2025
W

Fighter 5399500

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 2:06

Nov 11, 2023
W

Fighter 5399499

Submission (Triangle Choke) · R1 2:15

Apr 29, 2023

Your pick

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