OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca

BM
USAUSA

Bella Mir

“Lady”

Unranked · 4-0 · hybrid · -- · 23 · IQ B 70

Syndicate MMA · USA

VS
AA
USAUSA

Alex Apodaca

Unranked · 3-1 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 64

FactoryX Muay Thai · USA

Bella Mir

51.1%

Alex Apodaca

48.9%

Model win probability · confidence 53%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Mir 51 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Bella Mir is the model side at 51.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Durability is the clearest separator: Apodaca 91 (A+) vs Mir 71 (B). Apodaca has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mir 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Apodaca

    Apodaca 91 (A+) vs Mir 71 (B). Apodaca has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mir 0.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Mir

    Mir 21 (D) vs Apodaca 12 (D). Mir brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Apodaca's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Mir

    Mir 70 (B) vs Apodaca 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mir (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Mir

    Mir 69 (B) vs Apodaca 69 (B). When the shot comes, Mir stuffs it at 85% — Apodaca is at 85%.

Path · Mir

Mir has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Apodaca defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Apodaca

Apodaca wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Mir a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Mir is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Apodaca is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Mir — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Apodaca 91 (A+) vs Mir 71 (B). Apodaca has been finished by strikes 0 times; Mir 0. Ground game: Mir 21 (D) vs Apodaca 12 (D). Mir brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Apodaca's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Mir 70 (B) vs Apodaca 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Mir (B vs C+).

The finish path leans the mat (35% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MirTraitApodaca
70 B
IQ
64 C+
21 D
Ground
12 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
58 C
38 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
71 B
Chin
91 A+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
35%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Apodaca

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/4 UFC rows

    Mir

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 12

    Mir

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Mir

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 71.5"

    Apodaca

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Apodaca

  • Striking differential

    -3.76 vs -3.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Mir

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Apodaca

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 69%

    Mir

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Mir

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.13 landed/absorbed

    Mir

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Apodaca

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Mir

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Mir

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 87%

    Mir

  • Age-adjusted curve

    23 vs 0

    Mir

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Mir

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Mir

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Mir

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Mir

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Mir

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Mir

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Mir

Tape

MirMetricApodaca
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'7"Reach5'12"
23Age0

Bella Mir

W

Fighter 5369680

Submission (Hammerlock) · R1 3:58

Jul 27, 2025
W

Fighter 5369679

Submission (Armbar) · R1 2:38

Jun 24, 2022
W

Fighter 5369678

Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) · R1 1:53

Dec 11, 2020
W

Fighter 5115734

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 22, 2020

Alex Apodaca

W

Fighter 5394586

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 24, 2026
W

Fighter 5394585

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jan 30, 2026
W

Fighter 5394584

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 20, 2025
L

Fighter 5394583

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 16, 2024

Your pick

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