OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mateusz Rębecki 77% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Mateusz Rębecki / KO/TKO)

Mateusz Rębecki vs Kyle Prepolec

Mateusz Rębecki
PolandPoland

Mateusz Rębecki

Unranked · 21-5 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ C+ 66

Berserker's Team · Poland

VS
Kyle Prepolec
CanadaCanada

Kyle Prepolec

“Killshot”

Unranked · 18-11 · striker · Southpaw · 36 · IQ C 53

Maximum Training Centre · Canada

Mateusz Rębecki

76.9%

Kyle Prepolec

23.1%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rębecki 77 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mateusz Rębecki is the model side at 76.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Rębecki (ground 59) into Prepolec (TD reaction 61). Ground game is the clearest separator: Rębecki 59 (C) vs Prepolec 16 (D). Rębecki brings 3.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Prepolec's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Rębecki

    Rębecki 59 (C) vs Prepolec 16 (D). Rębecki brings 3.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Prepolec's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Rębecki

    Rębecki 58 (C) vs Prepolec 36 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rębecki (4.8 SLpM at 52%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Rębecki

    Rębecki 66 (C+) vs Prepolec 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rębecki (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Rębecki

    Rębecki 41 (D) vs Prepolec 34 (D). Rębecki's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Prepolec's entries.

Path · Rębecki

Rębecki has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Prepolec defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Prepolec

Prepolec has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Prepolec attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Rębecki is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Prepolec is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Rębecki — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Rębecki 59 (C) vs Prepolec 16 (D). Rębecki brings 3.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Prepolec's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Rębecki 58 (C) vs Prepolec 36 (D). Hand speed / output lean Rębecki (4.8 SLpM at 52%). Fight IQ: Rębecki 66 (C+) vs Prepolec 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Rębecki (C+ vs C).

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Prepolec attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RębeckiTraitPrepolec
66 C+
IQ
53 C
59 C
Ground
16 D
67 C+
Defense
64 C+
41 D
Counter
34 D
61 C+
Reaction
59 C
58 C
Agility
36 D
59 C
TD react
61 C+
83 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
33%
Decision
42%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

19%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Rębecki (ground 59) into Prepolec (TD reaction 61).

  • Striking differential

    1.87 vs -0.21 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Rębecki

  • Ground game (tape)

    59 vs 16

    Rębecki

  • Damage ratio

    1.64 vs 0.94 landed/absorbed

    Rębecki

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rębecki

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 35%

    Rębecki

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rębecki

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.79 vs 3.25

    Rębecki

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Rębecki

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 70.0"

    Prepolec

  • Counter punching

    41 vs 34

    Rębecki

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Rębecki

  • Striking defense

    58% vs 62%

    Prepolec

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Rębecki (ground 59) into Prepolec (TD reaction 61).

    Rębecki

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Rębecki

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 36

    Rębecki

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Prepolec

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 85%

    Prepolec

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Prepolec

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Rębecki

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rębecki

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Rębecki

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Rębecki

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Rębecki

Tape

RębeckiMetricPrepolec
4.79SLpM3.25
2.92SApM3.46
52%Str Acc35%
58%Str Def62%
3.05TD Avg0.00
49%TD Acc0%
73%TD Def85%
0.44Sub Avg0.00
0.22KD/150.10
5'6"Reach5'10"
33Age36

Mateusz Rębecki

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kyle Prepolec

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.