UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Bantamweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Aoriqileng 75% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura
ChinaAoriqileng
“The Mongolian Murderer”
Unranked · 26-13 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 54
Fight Ready · China
JapanKai Asakura
Unranked · 22-6 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 53
Japan Top Team · Japan
Aoriqileng
74.9%
Kai Asakura
25.1%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
74.9% / 25.1%
Market
20.8% / 79.2%
Moneyline
+364 / -465
Edge
+54.2% Aoriqileng
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Aoriqileng. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Aoriqileng 75 — the tape favors pocket striker
Aoriqileng is the model side at 74.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Aoriqileng (ground 32) into Asakura (TD reaction 18). Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Aoriqileng 60 (C+) vs Asakura 18 (D). When the shot comes, Aoriqileng stuffs it at 81% — Asakura is at 50%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
AoriqilengAoriqileng 60 (C+) vs Asakura 18 (D). When the shot comes, Aoriqileng stuffs it at 81% — Asakura is at 50%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
AoriqilengAoriqileng 64 (C+) vs Asakura 42 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Aoriqileng.
- 03
Punching agility
AoriqilengAoriqileng 58 (C) vs Asakura 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aoriqileng (4.4 SLpM at 57%).
- 04
Counter punching
AoriqilengAoriqileng 48 (D) vs Asakura 30 (D). Aoriqileng's return is the live one (0.14 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Asakura's entries.
Path · Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Asakura defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Asakura
Asakura has to stuff the first takedown (18 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Asakura attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Aoriqileng is built as: Pocket striker. Asakura is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Aoriqileng — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Aoriqileng 60 (C+) vs Asakura 18 (D). When the shot comes, Aoriqileng stuffs it at 81% — Asakura is at 50%. Timing & reaction: Aoriqileng 64 (C+) vs Asakura 42 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Aoriqileng. Punching agility: Aoriqileng 58 (C) vs Asakura 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Aoriqileng (4.4 SLpM at 57%).
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Asakura attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
19%
R2
13%
R3
14%
Dist
54%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Aoriqileng (ground 32) into Asakura (TD reaction 18).
Takedown reaction
81% vs 50% hips on the shot
AoriqilengStriking differential
1.00 vs -0.33 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
AoriqilengGround game (tape)
32 vs 15
AoriqilengStriking efficiency
53% vs 37%
AoriqilengDamage ratio
1.32 vs 0.89 landed/absorbed
AoriqilengRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
AsakuraCounter punching
48 vs 30
AoriqilengOutput (SLpM)
4.16 vs 2.60
AoriqilengTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
AoriqilengGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
AoriqilengPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
AoriqilengStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Aoriqileng (ground 32) into Asakura (TD reaction 18).
AoriqilengStriking defense
58% vs 52%
AoriqilengPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C
AoriqilengCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
AsakuraDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
AsakuraFight IQ
C 54 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
AoriqilengTakedown mismatch
TD def 79% vs 50%
AoriqilengAge-adjusted curve
33 vs 32
AsakuraStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 55 vs 54
AoriqilengReach / length
69.0" vs 69.0"
AoriqilengLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
AoriqilengChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Aoriqileng
Tape
Aoriqileng
Fighter 5001014
KO/TKO · R2 2:11
Fighter 2591306
KO/TKO · R1 0:21
Fighter 5088844
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5088886
No Contest · R2 3:28
Fighter 4687003
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4079149
KO/TKO · R1 1:04
Kai Asakura
Fighter 5144320
KO/TKO · R1 1:50
Tim Elliott
Submission · R2 4:39
Alexandre Pantoja
Submission · R2 2:05
Fighter 3152203
KO/TKO · R2 3:20
Fighter 3164799
KO/TKO · R3 2:25
Fighter 2609411
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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