OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Saygid Izagakhmaev 79% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Abubakar Vagaev / Decision - Unanimous)

Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev

Abubakar Vagaev
RussiaRussia

Abubakar Vagaev

Unranked · 25-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 64

Akhmat Fight Team · Russia

VS
Saygid Izagakhmaev
RussiaRussia

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Unranked · 22-4 · wrestler · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 70

Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov Martial Arts School · Russia

Abubakar Vagaev

21.5%

Saygid Izagakhmaev

78.5%

Model win probability · confidence 75%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Izagakhmaev 79 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Saygid Izagakhmaev is the model side at 78.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Izagakhmaev (ground 62) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Izagakhmaev 62 (C+) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Izagakhmaev brings 4.0 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Izagakhmaev

    Izagakhmaev 62 (C+) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Izagakhmaev brings 4.0 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Izagakhmaev

    Izagakhmaev 52 (C) vs Vagaev 37 (D). Izagakhmaev's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vagaev's entries.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Vagaev

    Vagaev 69 (B) vs Izagakhmaev 56 (C). When the shot comes, Vagaev stuffs it at 85% — Izagakhmaev is at 69%.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Izagakhmaev

    Izagakhmaev 49 (D) vs Vagaev 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Izagakhmaev (1.3 SLpM at 74%).

Path · Vagaev

Vagaev has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Izagakhmaev

Izagakhmaev has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Vagaev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vagaev attacking punching agility with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Izagakhmaev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Vagaev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Izagakhmaev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Izagakhmaev 62 (C+) vs Vagaev 13 (D). Izagakhmaev brings 4.0 TD/15 and 13 sub wins into Vagaev's 85% takedown defense. Counter punching: Izagakhmaev 52 (C) vs Vagaev 37 (D). Izagakhmaev's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vagaev's entries. Takedown reaction: Vagaev 69 (B) vs Izagakhmaev 56 (C). When the shot comes, Vagaev stuffs it at 85% — Izagakhmaev is at 69%.

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Vagaev attacking punching agility with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

VagaevTraitIzagakhmaev
64 C+
IQ
70 B
13 D
Ground
62 C+
57 C
Defense
61 C+
37 D
Counter
52 C
59 C
Reaction
58 C
38 D
Agility
49 D
69 B
TD react
56 C
85 A
Chin
75 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
37%
Decision
41%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

19%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Izagakhmaev (ground 62) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 74%

    Izagakhmaev

  • Ground game (tape)

    13 vs 62

    Izagakhmaev

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -2.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Izagakhmaev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Izagakhmaev

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.32 landed/absorbed

    Izagakhmaev

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Vagaev

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 1.33

    Izagakhmaev

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 52

    Izagakhmaev

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Izagakhmaev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Izagakhmaev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Vagaev

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 65%

    Vagaev

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Izagakhmaev (ground 62) into Vagaev (TD reaction 69).

    Izagakhmaev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Izagakhmaev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 69%

    Vagaev

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 74.0"

    Izagakhmaev

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 31

    Izagakhmaev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Izagakhmaev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Vagaev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Vagaev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Vagaev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Vagaev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Vagaev

Tape

VagaevMetricIzagakhmaev
0.00SLpM1.33
4.60SApM4.13
0%Str Acc74%
68%Str Def65%
0.00TD Avg4.00
0%TD Acc40%
85%TD Def69%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'1"Reach6'2"
33Age31

Abubakar Vagaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Saygid Izagakhmaev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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