OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dione Barbosa 85% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Dione Barbosa / Submission)

Anna Melisano vs Dione Barbosa

Anna Melisano
USAUSA

Anna Melisano

“Bandana”

Unranked · 6-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 51

Spartan MMA · USA

VS
Dione Barbosa
BrazilBrazil

Dione Barbosa

“The Witch”

Unranked · 10-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 34 · IQ B 69

The Q MMA · Brazil

Anna Melisano

15.0%

Dione Barbosa

85.0%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Barbosa 85 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Dione Barbosa is the model side at 85.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Barbosa (ground 70) into Melisano (TD reaction 55). Ground game is the clearest separator: Barbosa 70 (B) vs Melisano 15 (D). Barbosa brings 2.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Melisano's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 70 (B) vs Melisano 15 (D). Barbosa brings 2.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Melisano's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 69 (B) vs Melisano 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Barbosa (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 49 (D) vs Melisano 37 (D). Barbosa's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Melisano's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 65 (C+) vs Melisano 55 (C). When the shot comes, Barbosa stuffs it at 75% — Melisano is at 85%.

Path · Melisano

Melisano has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Barbosa

Barbosa has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Melisano defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Melisano attacking punching agility with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Barbosa is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Melisano is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +18 toward Barbosa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Barbosa 70 (B) vs Melisano 15 (D). Barbosa brings 2.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Melisano's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Barbosa 69 (B) vs Melisano 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Barbosa (B vs C). Counter punching: Barbosa 49 (D) vs Melisano 37 (D). Barbosa's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Melisano's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (55% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Melisano attacking punching agility with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MelisanoTraitBarbosa
51 C
IQ
69 B
15 D
Ground
70 B
57 C
Defense
62 C+
37 D
Counter
49 D
59 C
Reaction
58 C
39 D
Agility
48 D
55 C
TD react
65 C+
85 A
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
17%
Submission
55%
Decision
28%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

20%

R3

23%

Dist

28%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Barbosa (ground 70) into Melisano (TD reaction 55).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -1.62 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Barbosa

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 63%

    Barbosa

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 70

    Barbosa

  • Fight IQ

    C 51 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Barbosa

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Barbosa

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.58 landed/absorbed

    Barbosa

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 2.21

    Barbosa

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Barbosa

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 49

    Barbosa

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 64%

    Melisano

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 66.5"

    Melisano

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Barbosa (ground 70) into Melisano (TD reaction 55).

    Barbosa

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Barbosa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Melisano

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Barbosa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 34

    Melisano

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Barbosa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 75%

    Melisano

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Melisano

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Melisano

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Melisano

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Melisano

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Melisano

Tape

MelisanoMetricBarbosa
0.00SLpM2.21
4.60SApM3.83
0%Str Acc63%
68%Str Def64%
0.00TD Avg2.40
0%TD Acc44%
85%TD Def75%
0.00Sub Avg1.74
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach5'7"
29Age34

Anna Melisano

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Dione Barbosa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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