OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alvin Hines 85% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (RJ Harris / KO/TKO)

RJ Harris vs Alvin Hines

RJ Harris
USAUSA

RJ Harris

“The Hammer”

Unranked · 6-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 72

Sprawlin & Brawlin MMA · USA

VS
Alvin Hines
USAUSA

Alvin Hines

“Goozie”

Unranked · 7-2 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 63

La Bodega Fight Team · USA

RJ Harris

14.7%

Alvin Hines

85.3%

Model win probability · confidence 83%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Hines 85 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Alvin Hines is the model side at 85.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Harris 40 (D) vs Hines 26 (D). Harris's return is the live one (0.47 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hines's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Harris

    Harris 40 (D) vs Hines 26 (D). Harris's return is the live one (0.47 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hines's entries.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Hines

    Hines 69 (B) vs Harris 57 (C). Hines absorbs 2.69/min at 57% defense; Harris is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Hines

    Hines 52 (C) vs Harris 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hines (5.5 SLpM at 32%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Harris

    Harris 72 (B) vs Hines 63 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Harris (B vs C+).

Path · Harris

Harris wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Hines a long look at durability.

Path · Hines

Volume. Hines wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Harris a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Harris attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Hines is built as: Volume pressure striker. Harris is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -9 toward Harris — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Harris 40 (D) vs Hines 26 (D). Harris's return is the live one (0.47 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hines's entries. Striking defense: Hines 69 (B) vs Harris 57 (C). Hines absorbs 2.69/min at 57% defense; Harris is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Punching agility: Hines 52 (C) vs Harris 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Hines (5.5 SLpM at 32%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Harris attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HarrisTraitHines
72 B
IQ
63 C+
21 D
Ground
27 D
57 C
Defense
69 B
40 D
Counter
26 D
62 C+
Reaction
60 C+
41 D
Agility
52 C
69 B
TD react
67 C+
78 B+
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Decision
48%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 2.78 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Hines

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 2.03 landed/absorbed

    Hines

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 5.47

    Hines

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 32%

    Hines

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 57%

    Harris

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Harris

  • Reach / length

    80.0" vs 74.0"

    Harris

  • Counter punching

    40 vs 26

    Harris

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Hines

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 27

    Hines

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Hines

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Harris

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 34

    Harris

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Hines

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Hines

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Harris

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Hines

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Harris

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 81%

    Harris

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Harris

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Harris

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Harris

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Harris

Tape

HarrisMetricHines
0.00SLpM5.47
4.60SApM2.69
0%Str Acc32%
68%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg1.00
0%TD Acc10%
85%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.47KD/150.10
6'8"Reach6'2"
27Age34

RJ Harris

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alvin Hines

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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