OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alexia Thainara 74% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Alexia Thainara / Decision - Unanimous)

Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara

Amanda Lemos
BrazilBrazil

Amanda Lemos

Unranked · 15-7-1 · striker · Southpaw · 39 · IQ C+ 62

Marajo Brothers Team · Brazil

VS
Alexia Thainara
BrazilBrazil

Alexia Thainara

“Burguesinha”

Unranked · 15-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 62

Ribas Family · Brazil

Amanda Lemos

25.8%

Alexia Thainara

74.2%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Thainara 74 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Alexia Thainara is the model side at 74.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Thainara (ground 83) into Lemos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Thainara 83 (A) vs Lemos 44 (D). Thainara brings 4.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Lemos's 81% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Thainara

    Thainara 83 (A) vs Lemos 44 (D). Thainara brings 4.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Lemos's 81% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Thainara

    Thainara 64 (C+) vs Lemos 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Thainara (4.8 SLpM at 59%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Lemos

    Lemos 59 (C) vs Thainara 50 (D). When the shot comes, Lemos stuffs it at 81% — Thainara is at 69%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Lemos

    Lemos 53 (C) vs Thainara 44 (D). Lemos's return is the live one (0.37 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Thainara's entries.

Path · Lemos

Lemos has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Thainara

Thainara has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Lemos defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lemos attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Thainara is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Lemos is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Thainara — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Thainara 83 (A) vs Lemos 44 (D). Thainara brings 4.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Lemos's 81% takedown defense. Punching agility: Thainara 64 (C+) vs Lemos 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Thainara (4.8 SLpM at 59%). Takedown reaction: Lemos 59 (C) vs Thainara 50 (D). When the shot comes, Lemos stuffs it at 81% — Thainara is at 69%.

The finish path leans the mat (42% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Lemos attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LemosTraitThainara
62 C+
IQ
62 C+
44 D
Ground
83 A
63 C+
Defense
67 C+
53 C
Counter
44 D
61 C+
Reaction
58 C
48 D
Agility
64 C+
59 C
TD react
50 D
85 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
17%
Submission
42%
Decision
41%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

25%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Thainara (ground 83) into Lemos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.77 vs 1.88 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Thainara

  • Ground game (tape)

    44 vs 83

    Thainara

  • Damage ratio

    0.79 vs 1.64 landed/absorbed

    Thainara

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Thainara

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.84 vs 4.80

    Thainara

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Thainara

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Lemos

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 30

    Thainara

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Thainara

  • Counter punching

    53 vs 44

    Lemos

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 58%

    Lemos

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Thainara (ground 83) into Lemos (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Thainara

  • Reach / length

    65.0" vs 67.0"

    Thainara

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Thainara

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lemos

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 69%

    Lemos

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Lemos

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Thainara

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 59%

    Lemos

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Thainara

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Lemos

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Lemos

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lemos

Tape

LemosMetricThainara
2.84SLpM4.80
3.61SApM2.92
60%Str Acc59%
62%Str Def58%
0.93TD Avg3.95
58%TD Acc53%
81%TD Def69%
0.68Sub Avg1.39
0.37KD/150.10
5'5"Reach5'7"
39Age30

Amanda Lemos

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Alexia Thainara

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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