UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Middleweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jackson McVey 64% · Submission · Distance · scored hit (Jackson McVey / KO/TKO)
Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey
USAWes Schultz
“Party Time”
Unranked · 9-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 65
Pura Vida BJJ · USA
USAJackson McVey
“The Moose”
Unranked · 7-2 · striker · Southpaw · 27 · IQ C 54
St. Charles MMA · USA
Wes Schultz
36.3%
Jackson McVey
63.7%
Model win probability · confidence 73%
Desk
36.3% / 63.7%
Market
38.3% / 61.7%
Moneyline
+154 / -174
Edge
−2.0% McVey
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on McVey. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
McVey 64 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Jackson McVey is the model side at 63.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Schultz (ground 69) into McVey (TD reaction 11). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Schultz 65 (C+) vs McVey 11 (D). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — McVey is at 0%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
SchultzSchultz 65 (C+) vs McVey 11 (D). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — McVey is at 0%.
- 02
Punching agility
McVeyMcVey 82 (B+) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean McVey (6.5 SLpM at 73%).
- 03
Ground game
SchultzSchultz 69 (B) vs McVey 37 (D). Schultz brings 2.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into McVey's 0% takedown defense.
- 04
Timing & reaction
SchultzSchultz 61 (C+) vs McVey 41 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Schultz.
Path · Schultz
Schultz has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make McVey defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · McVey
McVey has to stuff the first takedown (11 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 60 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. McVey is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Schultz is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Schultz — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Schultz 65 (C+) vs McVey 11 (D). When the shot comes, Schultz stuffs it at 75% — McVey is at 0%. Punching agility: McVey 82 (B+) vs Schultz 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean McVey (6.5 SLpM at 73%). Ground game: Schultz 69 (B) vs McVey 37 (D). Schultz brings 2.4 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into McVey's 0% takedown defense.
The finish path leans the mat (41% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
26%
R2
18%
R3
22%
Dist
34%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.8 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Schultz (ground 69) into McVey (TD reaction 11). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-1.09 vs 3.95 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
McVeyDamage ratio
0.69 vs 3.92 landed/absorbed
McVeyTakedown reaction
75% vs 0% hips on the shot
SchultzGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SchultzStriking defense
63% vs 38%
SchultzGround game (tape)
69 vs 37
SchultzOutput (SLpM)
2.42 vs 5.30
McVeyStriking efficiency
50% vs 71%
McVeyPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
McVeyFight IQ
C+ 65 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
SchultzTakedown mismatch
TD def 76% vs 35%
SchultzTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
SchultzStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Schultz (ground 69) into McVey (TD reaction 11). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
SchultzCounter punching
44 vs 38
SchultzPocket defense (tape)
C vs C+
McVeyRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
SchultzDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
McVeyAge-adjusted curve
30 vs 27
McVeyCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
SchultzStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 54 vs 54
SchultzReach / length
77.0" vs 77.0"
SchultzLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
SchultzChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Schultz
Tape
Wes Schultz
Fighter 5344659
Submission · R3 1:50
Fighter 5292022
KO/TKO · R1 2:30
Fighter 5296254
Submission · R1 1:51
Fighter 4001868
Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:55
Fighter 5211221
KO/TKO · R2 3:55
Fighter 5152983
KO/TKO · R1 3:39
Jackson McVey
Fighter 5060467
Submission · R1 2:14
Fighter 5143223
Submission · R2 1:38
Brunno Ferreira
Submission · R1 3:35
Fighter 5291739
TKO (Knees and Punches) · R1 1:28
Fighter 4819971
Submission (Brabo Choke) · R1 0:33
Fighter 3988947
Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:53
Your pick
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