UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Kennedy Nzechukwu 76% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · scored miss (Shamil Gaziev / KO/TKO)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
USAKennedy Nzechukwu
“African Savage”
Unranked · 14-6-1 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C 52
Fortis MMA · USA
BahrainShamil Gaziev
Unranked · 14-3 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ B 72
KHK MMA Team · Bahrain
Kennedy Nzechukwu
76.1%
Shamil Gaziev
23.9%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
76.1% / 23.9%
Market
46.0% / 54.0%
Moneyline
+111 / -125
Edge
+30.1% Nzechukwu
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Nzechukwu. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Nzechukwu 76 — the tape favors power striker
Kennedy Nzechukwu is the model side at 76.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Nzechukwu 65 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Nzechukwu absorbs 2.86/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM.
- 01
Striking defense
NzechukwuNzechukwu 65 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Nzechukwu absorbs 2.86/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM.
- 02
Timing & reaction
NzechukwuNzechukwu 71 (B) vs Gaziev 35 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nzechukwu.
- 03
Punching agility
NzechukwuNzechukwu 66 (C+) vs Gaziev 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nzechukwu (5.0 SLpM at 49%).
- 04
Takedown reaction
GazievGaziev 82 (B+) vs Nzechukwu 54 (C). When the shot comes, Gaziev stuffs it at 100% — Nzechukwu is at 83%.
Path · Nzechukwu
Volume. Nzechukwu wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Gaziev a clean reset.
Path · Gaziev
Gaziev wins by forcing the fight into takedown reaction and denying Nzechukwu a long look at their first weapon.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gaziev attacking ground game with takedown reaction.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Nzechukwu is built as: Power striker — suspect hips against the shot, southpaw. Gaziev is built as: Pocket striker — elite sprawl, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -20 toward Gaziev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Nzechukwu 65 (C+) vs Gaziev 26 (D). Nzechukwu absorbs 2.86/min at 58% defense; Gaziev is a softer target at 5.48 SApM. Timing & reaction: Nzechukwu 71 (B) vs Gaziev 35 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nzechukwu. Punching agility: Nzechukwu 66 (C+) vs Gaziev 34 (D). Hand speed / output lean Nzechukwu (5.0 SLpM at 49%).
The finish path leans strikes (61% KO/TKO vs 7% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Gaziev attacking ground game with takedown reaction. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
35%
R2
17%
R3
16%
Dist
32%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.9 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
2.06 vs -1.74 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
NzechukwuDamage ratio
1.71 vs 0.69 landed/absorbed
NzechukwuFight IQ
C 52 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
GazievPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs D
NzechukwuStriking defense
58% vs 41%
NzechukwuTakedown reaction
83% vs 100% hips on the shot
GazievCounter punching
66 vs 38
NzechukwuTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
NzechukwuPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
NzechukwuOutput (SLpM)
4.97 vs 3.84
NzechukwuReach / length
83.0" vs 78.5"
NzechukwuGround game (tape)
25 vs 33
GazievRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 5/6 UFC rows
NzechukwuDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
GazievGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
GazievCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
NzechukwuAge-adjusted curve
34 vs 36
NzechukwuStriking efficiency
48% vs 47%
NzechukwuStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
NzechukwuLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
GazievStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 56 vs 56
GazievTakedown mismatch
TD def 83% vs 90%
NzechukwuChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Nzechukwu
Tape
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Fighter 4711604
Draw · R3 5:00
Fighter 5147389
Submission · R1 0:54
Fighter 4710386
KO/TKO · R1 4:51
Fighter 2960757
KO/TKO · R1 4:27
Fighter 2500735
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 2594871
KO/TKO · R1 1:22
Shamil Gaziev
Fighter 5293988
KO/TKO · R2 3:44
Waldo Cortes Acosta
KO/TKO · R1 1:22
Fighter 4869702
KO/TKO · R1 3:12
Fighter 4249193
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
KO/TKO · R4 5:00
Fighter 4406574
KO/TKO · R2 0:56
Your pick
Desk briefing
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