UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Reinier de Ridder 79% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Reinier de Ridder / KO/TKO)
Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
NetherlandsReinier de Ridder
“RDR”
Unranked · 21-4 · hybrid · Southpaw · 35 · IQ B+ 76
American Top Team · Netherlands
GeorgiaRoman Dolidze
Unranked · 15-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C+ 63
Xtreme Couture · Georgia
Reinier de Ridder
79.1%
Roman Dolidze
20.9%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
79.1% / 20.9%
Market
76.9% / 23.1%
Moneyline
-380 / +321
Edge
+2.1% Ridder
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Ridder. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
de Ridder 79 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Reinier de Ridder is the model side at 79.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: de Ridder 65 (C+) vs Dolidze 26 (D). When the shot comes, de Ridder stuffs it at 75% — Dolidze is at 18%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
Ridderde Ridder 65 (C+) vs Dolidze 26 (D). When the shot comes, de Ridder stuffs it at 75% — Dolidze is at 18%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
Ridderde Ridder 53 (C) vs Dolidze 23 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with de Ridder.
- 03
Striking defense
Ridderde Ridder 60 (C) vs Dolidze 39 (D). de Ridder absorbs 2.64/min at 54% defense; Dolidze is a softer target at 4.49 SApM.
- 04
Punching agility
Ridderde Ridder 53 (C) vs Dolidze 32 (D). Hand speed / output lean de Ridder (2.5 SLpM at 70%).
Path · Ridder
de Ridder has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Dolidze defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Dolidze
Dolidze has to stuff the first takedown (26 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 60 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Dolidze attacking counter punching with durability.
Full read
Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. de Ridder is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Dolidze is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward de Ridder — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: de Ridder 65 (C+) vs Dolidze 26 (D). When the shot comes, de Ridder stuffs it at 75% — Dolidze is at 18%. Timing & reaction: de Ridder 53 (C) vs Dolidze 23 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with de Ridder. Striking defense: de Ridder 60 (C) vs Dolidze 39 (D). de Ridder absorbs 2.64/min at 54% defense; Dolidze is a softer target at 4.49 SApM.
The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 31% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Dolidze attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.
Duration
R1
29%
R2
17%
R3
18%
Dist
35%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.
Style matchup
hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.01 vs -1.59 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
RidderTakedown reaction
75% vs 18% hips on the shot
RidderFight IQ
B+ 76 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
RidderTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
RidderPocket defense (tape)
C vs D
RidderDamage ratio
1.00 vs 0.65 landed/absorbed
RidderGround game (tape)
54 vs 42
RidderStriking defense
54% vs 45%
RidderTakedown mismatch
TD def 75% vs 35%
RidderPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
RidderGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
RidderStriking efficiency
53% vs 42%
RidderRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
RidderCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
RidderCounter punching
50 vs 43
RidderReach / length
78.0" vs 76.0"
RidderOutput (SLpM)
2.64 vs 2.95
DolidzeAge-adjusted curve
35 vs 38
RidderStyle interaction
hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
RidderStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 61 vs 62
DolidzeDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
RidderLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
RidderChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Ridder
Tape
Reinier de Ridder
Fighter 4835137
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4025699
KO/TKO · R4 5:00
Robert Whittaker
Decision - Split · R5 5:00
Fighter 5061870
KO/TKO · R2 1:53
Fighter 3943695
Submission · R1 3:31
Fighter 2553261
Submission · R3 1:44
Roman Dolidze
Fighter 4848674
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Anthony Hernandez
Submission · R4 2:45
Marvin Vettori
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 3943695
KO/TKO · R1 5:00
Fighter 2512976
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4690539
Decision - Majority · R5 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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