OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Junior Tafa 67% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Ce Liu vs Junior Tafa

CL
ChinaChina

Ce Liu

Unranked · 3-1 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C+ 61

China

VS
Junior Tafa
AustraliaAustralia

Junior Tafa

“The Juggernaut”

Unranked · 7-6 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ D 48

NTG Fight & Fitness · Australia

Ce Liu

33.2%

Junior Tafa

66.8%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Tafa 67 — the tape favors power striker

Junior Tafa is the model side at 66.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Tafa 55 (C) vs Liu 37 (D). Tafa's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Liu's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Tafa

    Tafa 55 (C) vs Liu 37 (D). Tafa's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Liu's entries.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Liu

    Liu 69 (B) vs Tafa 55 (C). When the shot comes, Liu stuffs it at 85% — Tafa is at 89%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Liu

    Liu 61 (C+) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Liu (C+ vs D).

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Tafa

    Tafa 49 (D) vs Liu 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Tafa (3.5 SLpM at 55%).

Path · Liu

Liu wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Tafa a long look at their first weapon.

Path · Tafa

Volume. Tafa wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Liu a clean reset.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Tafa is built as: Power striker — porous pocket. Liu is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -13 toward Liu — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Tafa 55 (C) vs Liu 37 (D). Tafa's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Liu's entries. Takedown reaction: Liu 69 (B) vs Tafa 55 (C). When the shot comes, Liu stuffs it at 85% — Tafa is at 89%. Fight IQ: Liu 61 (C+) vs Tafa 48 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Liu (C+ vs D).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (54%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LiuTraitTafa
61 C+
IQ
48 D
12 D
Ground
12 D
57 C
Defense
54 C
37 D
Counter
55 C
59 C
Reaction
60 C
39 D
Agility
49 D
69 B
TD react
55 C
78 B+
Chin
69 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
6%
Decision
54%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

12%

R3

12%

Dist

54%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -3.88 vs -0.16 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tafa

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 55%

    Tafa

  • Damage ratio

    0.13 vs 0.96 landed/absorbed

    Tafa

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 3.87

    Tafa

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/6 UFC rows

    Liu

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs D 48 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Liu

  • Striking defense

    69% vs 57%

    Liu

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 55

    Tafa

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 89% hips on the shot

    Liu

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Tafa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Liu

  • Reach / length

    77.5" vs 75.0"

    Liu

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Liu

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 56

    Tafa

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tafa

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Liu

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 29

    Liu

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tafa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Tafa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 86% vs 88%

    Liu

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Liu

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Liu

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Liu

Tape

LiuMetricTafa
0.00SLpM3.53
4.60SApM3.93
0%Str Acc55%
68%Str Def58%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def89%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.00
6'6"Reach6'3"
29Age29

Ce Liu

W

Fighter 5369422

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

May 23, 2026
L

Fighter 5292007

TKO (Punches) · R2 1:55

Oct 12, 2024
W

Fighter 5369421

KO/TKO · R2 1:07

Jun 28, 2023
W

Fighter 5369420

KO/TKO · R1 1:11

May 17, 2023

Junior Tafa

L

Iwo Baraniewski

KO/TKO · R1 1:25

Jun 7, 2026
W

Fighter 5216849

KO/TKO · R1 2:42

May 2, 2026
L

Fighter 5078114

Submission · R2 3:18

Feb 1, 2026
L

Fighter 4410698

Submission · R2 4:25

Jul 13, 2025
W

Sean Sharaf

KO/TKO · R2 2:15

Oct 12, 2024
L

Fighter 5147389

Submission · R1 4:56

Aug 18, 2024

Your pick

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