OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Rei Tsuruya 79% · Submission · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

Rei Tsuruya
JapanJapan

Rei Tsuruya

Unranked · 11-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B+ 80

Paraestra Matsudo · Japan

VS
Kevin Borjas
PeruPeru

Kevin Borjas

“El Gallo Negro”

Unranked · 11-5 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 51

Pitbull Martial Arts Center · Peru

Rei Tsuruya

78.8%

Kevin Borjas

21.2%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

78.8% / 21.2%

Market

83.1% / 16.9%

Moneyline

-632 / +471

Edge

−4.3% Borjas

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Borjas. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Tsuruya 79 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Rei Tsuruya is the model side at 78.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Tsuruya (ground 86) into Borjas (TD reaction 59). Ground game is the clearest separator: Tsuruya 86 (A) vs Borjas 12 (D). Tsuruya brings 5.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Borjas's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Tsuruya

    Tsuruya 86 (A) vs Borjas 12 (D). Tsuruya brings 5.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Borjas's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Tsuruya

    Tsuruya 80 (B+) vs Borjas 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tsuruya (B+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Tsuruya

    Tsuruya 44 (D) vs Borjas 29 (D). Tsuruya's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Borjas's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Tsuruya

    Tsuruya 48 (D) vs Borjas 36 (D). Hand speed / output lean Tsuruya (2.4 SLpM at 65%).

Path · Tsuruya

Tsuruya has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Borjas defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Borjas

Borjas has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 39 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Borjas attacking timing & reaction with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Tsuruya is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — high-IQ problem solver, porous pocket. Borjas is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +29 toward Tsuruya — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Tsuruya 86 (A) vs Borjas 12 (D). Tsuruya brings 5.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Borjas's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Tsuruya 80 (B+) vs Borjas 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Tsuruya (B+ vs C). Counter punching: Tsuruya 44 (D) vs Borjas 29 (D). Tsuruya's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Borjas's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (45% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Borjas attacking timing & reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TsuruyaTraitBorjas
80 B+
IQ
51 C
86 A
Ground
12 D
39 D
Defense
35 D
44 D
Counter
29 D
33 D
Reaction
40 D
48 D
Agility
36 D
62 C+
TD react
59 C
76 B+
Chin
86 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
45%
Decision
29%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

20%

R3

23%

Dist

29%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Tsuruya (ground 86) into Borjas (TD reaction 59).

  • Ground game (tape)

    86 vs 12

    Tsuruya

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 80 vs C 51 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Tsuruya

  • Striking differential

    -1.32 vs -2.94 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tsuruya

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tsuruya

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Tsuruya

  • Striking defense

    40% vs 48%

    Borjas

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 43%

    Tsuruya

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 29

    Tsuruya

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.47 vs 3.31

    Borjas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Tsuruya

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Borjas

  • Damage ratio

    0.65 vs 0.53 landed/absorbed

    Tsuruya

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Tsuruya (ground 86) into Borjas (TD reaction 59).

    Tsuruya

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Borjas

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 52 vs 64

    Borjas

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs D

    Tsuruya

  • Takedown reaction

    65% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Tsuruya

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tsuruya

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 28

    Tsuruya

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 67% vs 81%

    Borjas

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Borjas

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 68.0"

    Tsuruya

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Tsuruya

Tape

TsuruyaMetricBorjas
2.40SLpM3.87
3.93SApM6.22
65%Str Acc45%
39%Str Def48%
5.03TD Avg0.00
37%TD Acc0%
65%TD Def82%
2.01Sub Avg0.00
0.00KD/150.00
5'8"Reach5'8"
24Age28

Rei Tsuruya

W

Fighter 5218137

Submission · R1 3:19

May 30, 2026
L

Joshua Van

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 9, 2025
W

Fighter 3249894

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 29, 2024
W

Fighter 5135132

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

Feb 4, 2024
W

Fighter 4836247

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 27, 2023
W

Fighter 5135134

Submission (Kimura) · R2 1:19

May 27, 2023

Kevin Borjas

W

Andre Lima

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 20, 2026
L

Fighter 5289578

KO/TKO · R2 4:21

Mar 1, 2026
L

Sumudaerji

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 23, 2025
W

Fighter 4685888

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 29, 2025
L

Fighter 5074121

KO/TKO · R2 1:35

May 4, 2024
L

Joshua Van

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 11, 2023

Your pick

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