UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Sumudaerji 77% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
USAAlex Perez
#6 · 26-10 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C 55
Team Oyama · USA
ChinaSumudaerji
“The Tibetan Eagle”
Unranked · 19-7 · striker · Southpaw · 30 · IQ C 50
Enbo Fight Club · China
Alex Perez
22.5%
Sumudaerji
77.5%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
22.5% / 77.5%
Market
33.3% / 66.7%
Moneyline
+189 / -225
Edge
−10.8% Sumudaerji
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Sumudaerji. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Sumudaerji 77 — the tape favors pocket striker
Sumudaerji is the model side at 77.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 54) into Sumudaerji (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: Sumudaerji 88 (A) vs Perez 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Sumudaerji.
- 01
Timing & reaction
SumudaerjiSumudaerji 88 (A) vs Perez 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Sumudaerji.
- 02
Takedown reaction
SumudaerjiSumudaerji 58 (C) vs Perez 25 (D). When the shot comes, Sumudaerji stuffs it at 90% — Perez is at 50%.
- 03
Striking defense
SumudaerjiSumudaerji 93 (A+) vs Perez 61 (C+). Sumudaerji absorbs 1.17/min at 68% defense; Perez is a softer target at 2.60 SApM.
- 04
Ground game
PerezPerez 54 (C) vs Sumudaerji 32 (D). Perez brings 2.1 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Sumudaerji's 90% takedown defense.
Path · Perez
Perez has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Sumudaerji defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji has to stuff the first takedown (58 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Perez attacking ground game with their best weapon.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sumudaerji is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Perez is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Perez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: Sumudaerji 88 (A) vs Perez 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Sumudaerji. Takedown reaction: Sumudaerji 58 (C) vs Perez 25 (D). When the shot comes, Sumudaerji stuffs it at 90% — Perez is at 50%. Striking defense: Sumudaerji 93 (A+) vs Perez 61 (C+). Sumudaerji absorbs 1.17/min at 68% defense; Perez is a softer target at 2.60 SApM.
The finish path leans the mat (32% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Perez attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
25%
R2
15%
R3
15%
Dist
46%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 54) into Sumudaerji (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Damage ratio
1.78 vs 3.45 landed/absorbed
SumudaerjiTakedown reaction
50% vs 90% hips on the shot
SumudaerjiStriking defense
50% vs 68%
SumudaerjiTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
SumudaerjiGround game (tape)
54 vs 32
PerezPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs A+
SumudaerjiStriking differential
2.10 vs 2.94 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
SumudaerjiReach / length
65.5" vs 72.0"
SumudaerjiRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
SumudaerjiDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
SumudaerjiCounter punching
43 vs 55
SumudaerjiFight IQ
C 55 vs C 50 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
PerezPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
SumudaerjiTakedown mismatch
TD def 49% vs 90%
SumudaerjiOutput (SLpM)
4.79 vs 4.14
PerezCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
SumudaerjiStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Perez (ground 54) into Sumudaerji (TD reaction 58). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
PerezStriking efficiency
44% vs 49%
SumudaerjiAge-adjusted curve
34 vs 30
SumudaerjiGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SumudaerjiStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 59 vs 62
SumudaerjiLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
PerezChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Perez
Tape
Alex Perez
Sumudaerji
No Contest · R2 1:45
Fighter 4375156
KO/TKO · R1 3:16
Fighter 4294926
Submission · R3 0:22
Fighter 4917772
KO/TKO · R2 2:59
Fighter 3020090
KO/TKO · R2 2:16
Fighter 4905261
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Sumudaerji
Alex Perez
No Contest · R2 1:45
Fighter 5074274
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Kevin Borjas
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4815978
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4375156
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Tim Elliott
Submission · R1 4:02
Your pick
Desk briefing
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