OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Denise Gomes 85% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes

Yan Xiaonan
ChinaChina

Yan Xiaonan

#5 · 19-5 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C+ 61

Team Alpha Male · China

VS
Denise Gomes
BrazilBrazil

Denise Gomes

“Dee”

Unranked · 12-3 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 73

Parana Vale Tudo · Brazil

Yan Xiaonan

14.8%

Denise Gomes

85.2%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

14.8% / 85.2%

Market

58.3% / 41.7%

Moneyline

-154 / +131

Edge

−43.6% Gomes

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Gomes. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Gomes 85 — the tape favors power striker

Denise Gomes is the model side at 85.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Gomes 66 (C+) vs Xiaonan 39 (D). When the shot comes, Gomes stuffs it at 79% — Xiaonan is at 60%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Gomes

    Gomes 66 (C+) vs Xiaonan 39 (D). When the shot comes, Gomes stuffs it at 79% — Xiaonan is at 60%.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Gomes

    Gomes 66 (C+) vs Xiaonan 44 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gomes.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Gomes

    Gomes 59 (C) vs Xiaonan 43 (D). Gomes's return is the live one (0.38 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Xiaonan's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Gomes

    Gomes 68 (B) vs Xiaonan 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Gomes (4.4 SLpM at 59%).

Path · Xiaonan

Xiaonan wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Gomes a long look at durability.

Path · Gomes

Gomes wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Xiaonan a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Xiaonan attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Gomes is built as: Power striker. Xiaonan is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Gomes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Gomes 66 (C+) vs Xiaonan 39 (D). When the shot comes, Gomes stuffs it at 79% — Xiaonan is at 60%. Timing & reaction: Gomes 66 (C+) vs Xiaonan 44 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gomes. Counter punching: Gomes 59 (C) vs Xiaonan 43 (D). Gomes's return is the live one (0.38 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Xiaonan's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 24% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Xiaonan attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

XiaonanTraitGomes
61 C+
IQ
73 B
32 D
Ground
39 D
56 C
Defense
70 B
43 D
Counter
59 C
44 D
Reaction
66 C+
54 C
Agility
68 B
39 D
TD react
66 C+
87 A
Chin
86 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
24%
Decision
39%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

16%

R3

14%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.65 vs 3.90 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gomes

  • Damage ratio

    1.18 vs 2.97 landed/absorbed

    Gomes

  • Takedown reaction

    60% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Gomes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Gomes

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gomes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gomes

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.23 vs 5.89

    Gomes

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gomes

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 59

    Gomes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Gomes

  • Ground game (tape)

    32 vs 39

    Gomes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Gomes

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 26

    Gomes

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 60% vs 81%

    Gomes

  • Striking defense

    54% vs 57%

    Gomes

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 66 vs 58

    Xiaonan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gomes

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gomes

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 51%

    Gomes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Xiaonan

  • Reach / length

    63.0" vs 63.0"

    Xiaonan

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Xiaonan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Xiaonan

Tape

XiaonanMetricGomes
4.69SLpM4.43
3.59SApM2.17
51%Str Acc59%
54%Str Def55%
0.84TD Avg1.45
73%TD Acc34%
60%TD Def79%
0.00Sub Avg0.72
0.43KD/150.38
5'3"Reach5'3"
37Age26

Yan Xiaonan

L

Fighter 4289516

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 13, 2025
W

Fighter 4868095

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 23, 2024
L

Zhang Weili

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Apr 14, 2024
W

Jessica Andrade

KO/TKO · R1 2:20

May 7, 2023
W

Mackenzie Dern

Decision - Majority · R5 5:00

Oct 1, 2022
L

Marina Rodriguez

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 6, 2022

Denise Gomes

W

Tecia Pennington

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 8, 2025
W

Elise Reed

KO/TKO · R2 0:30

May 17, 2025
W

Fighter 3102702

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 9, 2024
W

Eduarda Moura

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jun 8, 2024
L

Fighter 3115931

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 4, 2023
W

Fighter 5063403

KO/TKO · R1 0:20

Jul 9, 2023

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.