OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jalin Turner 63% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Jalin Turner / KO/TKO)

Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes

Jalin Turner
USAUSA

Jalin Turner

“The Tarantula”

Unranked · 16-9 · striker · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 61

Carlson Gracie Riverside · USA

VS
Kauê Fernandes
BrazilBrazil

Kauê Fernandes

Unranked · 11-3 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 71

Nova Uniao · Brazil

Jalin Turner

62.7%

Kauê Fernandes

37.3%

Model win probability · confidence 57%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Turner 63 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Jalin Turner is the model side at 62.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Turner 48 (D) vs Fernandes 38 (D). Turner brings 0.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Fernandes's 80% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Turner

    Turner 48 (D) vs Fernandes 38 (D). Turner brings 0.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Fernandes's 80% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Fernandes

    Fernandes 71 (B) vs Turner 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Fernandes (B vs C+).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Fernandes

    Fernandes 53 (C) vs Turner 44 (D). Fernandes's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Turner's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Turner

    Turner 72 (B) vs Fernandes 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Turner (5.8 SLpM at 52%).

Path · Turner

Turner has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Fernandes defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Fernandes

Fernandes has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 71 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Turner is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Fernandes is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -10 toward Fernandes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Turner 48 (D) vs Fernandes 38 (D). Turner brings 0.8 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Fernandes's 80% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Fernandes 71 (B) vs Turner 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Fernandes (B vs C+). Counter punching: Fernandes 53 (C) vs Turner 44 (D). Fernandes's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Turner's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (44% KO/TKO vs 22% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

TurnerTraitFernandes
61 C+
IQ
71 B
48 D
Ground
38 D
71 B
Defense
66 C+
44 D
Counter
53 C
70 B
Reaction
66 C+
72 B
Agility
65 C+
64 C+
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Decision
34%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

17%

R3

17%

Dist

34%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    3.22 vs 1.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Turner

  • Damage ratio

    2.25 vs 1.38 landed/absorbed

    Turner

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Fernandes

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.79 vs 4.28

    Turner

  • Ground game (tape)

    48 vs 38

    Turner

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 60%

    Fernandes

  • Reach / length

    77.0" vs 73.0"

    Turner

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 53

    Fernandes

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 59%

    Fernandes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Turner

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Turner

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Fernandes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Turner

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Fernandes

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Turner

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Turner

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Turner

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 80%

    Turner

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 31

    Turner

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Turner

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Turner

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Turner

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Turner

Tape

TurnerMetricFernandes
5.79SLpM4.28
2.57SApM3.10
52%Str Acc60%
56%Str Def59%
0.75TD Avg1.18
56%TD Acc100%
82%TD Def80%
1.06Sub Avg0.00
0.67KD/150.40
6'5"Reach6'1"
31Age31

Jalin Turner

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Kauê Fernandes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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