OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Neil Magny 58% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Neil Magny / KO/TKO)

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj

Neil Magny
USAUSA

Neil Magny

“The Haitian Sensation”

Unranked · 32-15 · hybrid · Orthodox · 39 · IQ C 56

Pound 4 Pound Muay Thai · USA

VS
Ramiz Brahimaj
USAUSA

Ramiz Brahimaj

Unranked · 13-7 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C 53

Valle Flow Striking · USA

Neil Magny

57.9%

Ramiz Brahimaj

42.1%

Model win probability · confidence 51%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Magny 58 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Neil Magny is the model side at 57.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Brahimaj (ground 64) into Magny (TD reaction 52). Ground game is the clearest separator: Brahimaj 64 (C+) vs Magny 43 (D). Brahimaj brings 2.0 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Magny's 76% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Brahimaj

    Brahimaj 64 (C+) vs Magny 43 (D). Brahimaj brings 2.0 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Magny's 76% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Magny

    Magny 85 (A) vs Brahimaj 65 (C+). Magny has been finished by strikes 0 times; Brahimaj 0.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Brahimaj

    Brahimaj 66 (C+) vs Magny 52 (C). When the shot comes, Brahimaj stuffs it at 77% — Magny is at 76%.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Magny

    Magny 56 (C) vs Brahimaj 43 (D). Magny's return is the live one (0.48 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Brahimaj's entries.

Path · Magny

Magny has to stuff the first takedown (52 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Brahimaj

Brahimaj has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Magny defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Magny is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Brahimaj is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Magny — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Brahimaj 64 (C+) vs Magny 43 (D). Brahimaj brings 2.0 TD/15 and 12 sub wins into Magny's 76% takedown defense. Durability: Magny 85 (A) vs Brahimaj 65 (C+). Magny has been finished by strikes 0 times; Brahimaj 0. Takedown reaction: Brahimaj 66 (C+) vs Magny 52 (C). When the shot comes, Brahimaj stuffs it at 77% — Magny is at 76%.

The finish path leans strikes (33% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MagnyTraitBrahimaj
56 C
IQ
53 C
43 D
Ground
64 C+
64 C+
Defense
62 C+
56 C
Counter
43 D
60 C
Reaction
62 C+
53 C
Agility
43 D
52 C
TD react
66 C+
85 A
Chin
65 C+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
33%
Submission
23%
Decision
44%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Brahimaj (ground 64) into Magny (TD reaction 52).

  • Striking differential

    -0.02 vs -1.51 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Magny

  • Ground game (tape)

    43 vs 64

    Brahimaj

  • Reach / length

    80.0" vs 72.0"

    Magny

  • Damage ratio

    0.99 vs 0.60 landed/absorbed

    Magny

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Brahimaj

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Magny

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Brahimaj

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.39 vs 2.29

    Magny

  • Counter punching

    56 vs 43

    Magny

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Magny

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Brahimaj (ground 64) into Magny (TD reaction 52).

    Brahimaj

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 55%

    Magny

  • Fight IQ

    C 56 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Magny

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 63%

    Brahimaj

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 33

    Brahimaj

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Magny

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Brahimaj

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Magny

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Magny

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 77%

    Brahimaj

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Magny

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Magny

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Magny

Tape

MagnyMetricBrahimaj
3.39SLpM2.29
3.41SApM3.80
60%Str Acc55%
61%Str Def63%
2.13TD Avg1.99
40%TD Acc34%
76%TD Def77%
0.30Sub Avg1.60
0.48KD/150.14
6'8"Reach6'0"
39Age33

Neil Magny

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ramiz Brahimaj

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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