OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mike Davis 66% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Nurullo Aliev / Decision - Unanimous)

Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis

Nurullo Aliev
TajikistanTajikistan

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”

Unranked · 12-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B 72

Kaizen MMA · Tajikistan

VS
Mike Davis
USAUSA

Mike Davis

“Beast Boy”

Unranked · 12-4 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 66

Fusion X-Cel · USA

Nurullo Aliev

34.1%

Mike Davis

65.9%

Model win probability · confidence 60%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Davis 66 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mike Davis is the model side at 65.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Ground game is the clearest separator: Davis 54 (C) vs Aliev 42 (D). Davis brings 2.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Davis

    Davis 54 (C) vs Aliev 42 (D). Davis brings 2.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Davis

    Davis 62 (C+) vs Aliev 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Davis (4.7 SLpM at 56%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Aliev

    Aliev 66 (C+) vs Davis 58 (C). When the shot comes, Aliev stuffs it at 77% — Davis is at 75%.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Aliev

    Aliev 72 (B) vs Davis 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Aliev (B vs C+).

Path · Aliev

Aliev has to stuff the first takedown (66 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Davis

Davis has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Aliev defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Davis is built as: Pocket striker. Aliev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Aliev — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Davis 54 (C) vs Aliev 42 (D). Davis brings 2.4 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Aliev's 77% takedown defense. Punching agility: Davis 62 (C+) vs Aliev 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Davis (4.7 SLpM at 56%). Takedown reaction: Aliev 66 (C+) vs Davis 58 (C). When the shot comes, Aliev stuffs it at 77% — Davis is at 75%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AlievTraitDavis
72 B
IQ
66 C+
42 D
Ground
54 C
62 C+
Defense
67 C+
47 D
Counter
46 D
63 C+
Reaction
64 C+
50 C
Agility
62 C+
66 C+
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
19%
Decision
52%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -0.93 vs 1.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Davis

  • Damage ratio

    0.75 vs 1.61 landed/absorbed

    Davis

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.72 vs 4.73

    Davis

  • Ground game (tape)

    42 vs 54

    Davis

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Aliev

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 75% hips on the shot

    Aliev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Aliev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Davis

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 59%

    Aliev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Davis

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Davis

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 33

    Aliev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Davis

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 72.5"

    Davis

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 46

    Aliev

  • Striking efficiency

    57% vs 56%

    Aliev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Davis

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 75%

    Aliev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Aliev

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Aliev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aliev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Aliev

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Aliev

Tape

AlievMetricDavis
2.72SLpM4.73
3.65SApM2.94
57%Str Acc56%
63%Str Def59%
2.12TD Avg2.40
44%TD Acc44%
77%TD Def75%
0.30Sub Avg0.75
0.23KD/150.35
6'0"Reach6'1"
25Age33

Nurullo Aliev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mike Davis

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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