OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Magomed Zaynukov 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Magomed Zaynukov / Decision - Unanimous)

Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki

Magomed Zaynukov
RussiaRussia

Magomed Zaynukov

“Wild Chanco”

Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 70

Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov Martial Arts School · Russia

VS
Damian Rzepecki
PolandPoland

Damian Rzepecki

“The Butcher”

Unranked · 10-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B 69

Top Fit Center Piotrków Trybunalski · Poland

Magomed Zaynukov

91.0%

Damian Rzepecki

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Zaynukov 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Magomed Zaynukov is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Zaynukov (ground 42) into Rzepecki (TD reaction 69). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Zaynukov 80 (B+) vs Rzepecki 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Zaynukov (15.7 SLpM at 62%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Zaynukov

    Zaynukov 80 (B+) vs Rzepecki 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Zaynukov (15.7 SLpM at 62%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Zaynukov

    Zaynukov 42 (D) vs Rzepecki 21 (D). Zaynukov brings 2.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Rzepecki's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Zaynukov

    Zaynukov 66 (C+) vs Rzepecki 57 (C). Zaynukov absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Rzepecki is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Rzepecki

    Rzepecki 37 (D) vs Zaynukov 29 (D). Rzepecki's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Zaynukov's entries.

Path · Zaynukov

Zaynukov has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rzepecki defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Rzepecki

Rzepecki has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rzepecki attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Zaynukov is built as: Volume pressure striker. Rzepecki is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Zaynukov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Zaynukov 80 (B+) vs Rzepecki 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Zaynukov (15.7 SLpM at 62%). Ground game: Zaynukov 42 (D) vs Rzepecki 21 (D). Zaynukov brings 2.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Rzepecki's 85% takedown defense. Striking defense: Zaynukov 66 (C+) vs Rzepecki 57 (C). Zaynukov absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Rzepecki is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (62%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rzepecki attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ZaynukovTraitRzepecki
70 B
IQ
69 B
42 D
Ground
21 D
66 C+
Defense
57 C
29 D
Counter
37 D
54 C
Reaction
58 C
80 B+
Agility
38 D
66 C+
TD react
69 B
84 A
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
18%
Decision
62%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

15%

R2

10%

R3

12%

Dist

62%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Zaynukov (ground 42) into Rzepecki (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    14.27 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Zaynukov

  • Damage ratio

    11.19 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Zaynukov

  • Output (SLpM)

    15.67 vs 0.00

    Zaynukov

  • Striking efficiency

    62% vs 0%

    Zaynukov

  • Striking defense

    42% vs 68%

    Rzepecki

  • Ground game (tape)

    42 vs 21

    Zaynukov

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Zaynukov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Zaynukov

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Zaynukov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Zaynukov

  • Counter punching

    29 vs 37

    Rzepecki

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 71.0"

    Rzepecki

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Zaynukov (ground 42) into Rzepecki (TD reaction 69).

    Zaynukov

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Zaynukov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Rzepecki

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Rzepecki

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Zaynukov

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 24

    Rzepecki

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 85%

    Rzepecki

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Zaynukov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Zaynukov

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Zaynukov

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Zaynukov

Tape

ZaynukovMetricRzepecki
15.67SLpM0.00
1.40SApM4.60
62%Str Acc0%
42%Str Def68%
2.00TD Avg0.00
100%TD Acc0%
77%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'8"Reach5'11"
31Age24

Magomed Zaynukov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Damian Rzepecki

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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