OctagonEdge

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Farid Basharat 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Farid Basharat / Decision - Unanimous)

Farid Basharat vs John Garza

Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat

“Ferocious”

Unranked · 16-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B+ 78

American Top Team

VS
John Garza
USAUSA

John Garza

“Mowgli”

Unranked · 6-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 23 · IQ C+ 66

AzTex MMA · USA

Farid Basharat

91.0%

John Garza

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Basharat 91 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Farid Basharat is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Basharat (ground 59) into Garza (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Basharat 59 (C) vs Garza 15 (D). Basharat brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Garza's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Basharat

    Basharat 59 (C) vs Garza 15 (D). Basharat brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Garza's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Basharat

    Basharat 62 (C+) vs Garza 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Basharat (4.5 SLpM at 59%).

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Basharat

    Basharat 78 (B+) vs Garza 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Basharat (B+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Basharat

    Basharat 66 (C+) vs Garza 57 (C). Basharat absorbs 3.04/min at 59% defense; Garza is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Basharat

Basharat has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Garza defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Garza

Garza has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Garza attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Basharat is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Garza is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +13 toward Basharat — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Basharat 59 (C) vs Garza 15 (D). Basharat brings 3.6 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Garza's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Basharat 62 (C+) vs Garza 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Basharat (4.5 SLpM at 59%). Fight IQ: Basharat 78 (B+) vs Garza 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Basharat (B+ vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Garza attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BasharatTraitGarza
78 B+
IQ
66 C+
59 C
Ground
15 D
66 C+
Defense
57 C
46 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
58 C
62 C+
Agility
38 D
64 C+
TD react
69 B
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
32%
Decision
49%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

17%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Basharat (ground 59) into Garza (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    1.42 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Basharat

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 0%

    Basharat

  • Damage ratio

    1.47 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Basharat

  • Ground game (tape)

    59 vs 15

    Basharat

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.46 vs 0.00

    Basharat

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 78 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Basharat

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Basharat

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 68%

    Garza

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Basharat

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Basharat

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Basharat

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 37

    Basharat

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 68.0"

    Basharat

  • Takedown reaction

    71% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Garza

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Basharat (ground 59) into Garza (TD reaction 69).

    Basharat

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Basharat

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 71% vs 85%

    Garza

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Garza

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 23

    Garza

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Basharat

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Basharat

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Basharat

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Basharat

Tape

BasharatMetricGarza
4.46SLpM0.00
3.04SApM4.60
59%Str Acc0%
59%Str Def68%
3.57TD Avg0.00
38%TD Acc0%
71%TD Def85%
0.27Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach5'8"
29Age23

Farid Basharat

No recent UFC tape in the book.

John Garza

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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