UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Carli Judice 88% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Carli Judice / KO/TKO)
Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
USACarli Judice
“Crispy”
Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Southpaw · 27 · IQ C+ 68
Headkicks MMA · USA
BrazilJeisla Chaves
“A Braba”
Unranked · 8-0 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 72
Gomes Fight Team · Brazil
Carli Judice
88.1%
Jeisla Chaves
11.9%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
88.1% / 11.9%
Market
83.3% / 16.7%
Moneyline
-600 / +481
Edge
+4.9% Judice
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Judice. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Judice 88 — the tape favors power striker
Carli Judice is the model side at 88.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Chaves 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
ChavesChaves 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense.
- 02
Punching agility
JudiceJudice 80 (B+) vs Chaves 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Judice (9.3 SLpM at 53%).
- 03
Durability
ChavesChaves 91 (A+) vs Judice 79 (B+). Chaves has been finished by strikes 0 times; Judice 0.
- 04
Timing & reaction
JudiceJudice 69 (B) vs Chaves 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Judice.
Path · Judice
Judice has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Chaves
Chaves has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Judice defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chaves attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Judice is built as: Power striker — southpaw. Chaves is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Chaves — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Chaves 37 (D) vs Judice 19 (D). Chaves brings 1.5 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Judice's 83% takedown defense. Punching agility: Judice 80 (B+) vs Chaves 65 (C+). Hand speed / output lean Judice (9.3 SLpM at 53%). Durability: Chaves 91 (A+) vs Judice 79 (B+). Chaves has been finished by strikes 0 times; Judice 0.
The finish path leans strikes (35% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chaves attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
26%
R2
14%
R3
13%
Dist
48%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Damage ratio
6.65 vs 1.27 landed/absorbed
JudiceStriking differential
7.10 vs 0.70 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
JudiceOutput (SLpM)
8.36 vs 3.33
JudiceGround game (tape)
19 vs 37
ChavesStriking defense
51% vs 60%
ChavesRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
ChavesStriking efficiency
50% vs 58%
ChavesPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
JudiceGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
ChavesDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
ChavesFight IQ
C+ 68 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
ChavesTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
JudiceCounter punching
48 vs 43
JudicePocket defense (tape)
B vs C+
JudiceCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
JudiceStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Chaves (ground 37) into Judice (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
ChavesTakedown reaction
83% vs 79% hips on the shot
JudiceAge-adjusted curve
27 vs 29
JudiceTakedown mismatch
TD def 85% vs 82%
JudiceStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 55 vs 57
ChavesReach / length
68.0" vs 68.0"
JudiceLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
JudiceChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Judice
Tape
Carli Judice
Fighter 4912582
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4239113
KO/TKO · R3 1:30
Fighter 5211223
KO/TKO · R1 1:40
Fighter 4871203
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5149147
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4289254
KO/TKO · R1 3:16
Jeisla Chaves
Fighter 5211223
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5308770
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5309080
KO/TKO · R3 4:31
Fighter 5309079
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5309078
KO/TKO · R1 4:49
Fighter 5310565
KO/TKO · R1 2:40
Your pick
Desk briefing
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