Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

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Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hernandez is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Rodrigues is built as: Power striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Hernandez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Hernandez 92 (A+) vs Rodrigues 41 (D). Hernandez brings 5.9 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Rodrigues's 75% takedown defense. Striking defense: Hernandez 78 (B+) vs Rodrigues 48 (D). Hernandez absorbs 1.89/min at 58% defense; Rodrigues is a softer target at 4.33 SApM. Takedown reaction: Rodrigues 64 (C+) vs Hernandez 36 (D). When the shot comes, Rodrigues stuffs it at 75% — Hernandez is at 50%.

The finish path leans the mat (43% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rodrigues attacking takedown reaction with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.