OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dustin Stoltzfus 55% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Dustin Stoltzfus / Submission)

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Mansur Abdul-Malik
USAUSA

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Unranked · 9-2-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 57

MMA Masters · USA

VS
Dustin Stoltzfus
USAUSA

Dustin Stoltzfus

Unranked · 17-8 · hybrid · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 61

Xtreme Couture · USA

Mansur Abdul-Malik

45.5%

Dustin Stoltzfus

54.5%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Stoltzfus 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Dustin Stoltzfus is the model side at 54.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Stoltzfus (ground 58) into Abdul-Malik (TD reaction 53). Ground game is the clearest separator: Stoltzfus 58 (C) vs Abdul-Malik 41 (D). Stoltzfus brings 2.1 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Abdul-Malik's 78% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Stoltzfus

    Stoltzfus 58 (C) vs Abdul-Malik 41 (D). Stoltzfus brings 2.1 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Abdul-Malik's 78% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Abdul-Malik

    Abdul-Malik 69 (B) vs Stoltzfus 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Abdul-Malik.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Stoltzfus

    Stoltzfus 58 (C) vs Abdul-Malik 53 (C). When the shot comes, Stoltzfus stuffs it at 77% — Abdul-Malik is at 78%.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Stoltzfus

    Stoltzfus 61 (C+) vs Abdul-Malik 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Stoltzfus (C+ vs C).

Path · Abdul-Malik

Abdul-Malik has to stuff the first takedown (53 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Abdul-Malik defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Stoltzfus is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Abdul-Malik is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Stoltzfus — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Stoltzfus 58 (C) vs Abdul-Malik 41 (D). Stoltzfus brings 2.1 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Abdul-Malik's 78% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Abdul-Malik 69 (B) vs Stoltzfus 60 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Abdul-Malik. Takedown reaction: Stoltzfus 58 (C) vs Abdul-Malik 53 (C). When the shot comes, Stoltzfus stuffs it at 77% — Abdul-Malik is at 78%.

The finish path leans the mat (41% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

Abdul-MalikTraitStoltzfus
57 C
IQ
61 C+
41 D
Ground
58 C
64 C+
Defense
64 C+
48 D
Counter
48 D
69 B
Reaction
60 C
52 C
Agility
51 C
53 C
TD react
58 C
85 A
Chin
80 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
31%
Submission
41%
Decision
27%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

33%

R2

19%

R3

20%

Dist

27%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Stoltzfus (ground 58) into Abdul-Malik (TD reaction 53).

  • Ground game (tape)

    41 vs 58

    Stoltzfus

  • Striking efficiency

    46% vs 56%

    Stoltzfus

  • Reach / length

    79.5" vs 75.0"

    Abdul-Malik

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Stoltzfus

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C+ 61 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Stoltzfus

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Stoltzfus (ground 58) into Abdul-Malik (TD reaction 53).

    Stoltzfus

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Abdul-Malik

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Stoltzfus

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Abdul-Malik

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 34

    Abdul-Malik

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Abdul-Malik

  • Striking differential

    -0.17 vs -0.15 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Stoltzfus

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Abdul-Malik

  • Damage ratio

    0.95 vs 0.96 landed/absorbed

    Stoltzfus

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 77%

    Abdul-Malik

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.28 vs 3.30

    Stoltzfus

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 48

    Stoltzfus

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 61%

    Abdul-Malik

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Abdul-Malik

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Abdul-Malik

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Abdul-Malik

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Abdul-Malik

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Abdul-Malik

Tape

Abdul-MalikMetricStoltzfus
3.28SLpM3.30
3.45SApM3.45
46%Str Acc56%
61%Str Def61%
1.65TD Avg2.08
42%TD Acc38%
78%TD Def77%
0.33Sub Avg1.11
0.70KD/150.22
6'8"Reach6'3"
28Age34

Mansur Abdul-Malik

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Dustin Stoltzfus

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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