OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Myktybek Orolbai 56% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Jeremiah Wells / Submission)

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

Jeremiah Wells
USAUSA

Jeremiah Wells

Unranked · 14-4-1 · hybrid · Switch · 39 · IQ C+ 66

Renzo Gracie Philly · USA

VS
Myktybek Orolbai
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

Myktybek Orolbai

Unranked · 16-3-1 · wrestler · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 66

Team Alpha Male · Kyrgyzstan

Jeremiah Wells

43.9%

Myktybek Orolbai

56.1%

Model win probability · confidence 49%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Orolbai 56 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Myktybek Orolbai is the model side at 56.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Wells 57 (C) vs Orolbai 36 (D). When the shot comes, Wells stuffs it at 73% — Orolbai is at 50%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Wells

    Wells 57 (C) vs Orolbai 36 (D). When the shot comes, Wells stuffs it at 73% — Orolbai is at 50%.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Orolbai

    Orolbai 52 (C) vs Wells 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Orolbai (2.8 SLpM at 60%).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Orolbai

    Orolbai 82 (B+) vs Wells 71 (B). Orolbai brings 8.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Wells's 73% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Wells

    Wells 56 (C) vs Orolbai 50 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Wells.

Path · Wells

Wells has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Orolbai

Orolbai has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Wells defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Respect the wrestle-up: Orolbai's hips are the live vulnerability and Wells has the ground grade to hunt them.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Orolbai is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Wells is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Orolbai — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Wells 57 (C) vs Orolbai 36 (D). When the shot comes, Wells stuffs it at 73% — Orolbai is at 50%. Punching agility: Orolbai 52 (C) vs Wells 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Orolbai (2.8 SLpM at 60%). Ground game: Orolbai 82 (B+) vs Wells 71 (B). Orolbai brings 8.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Wells's 73% takedown defense.

The finish path leans the mat (26% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. Respect the wrestle-up: Orolbai's hips are the live vulnerability and Wells has the ground grade to hunt them. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WellsTraitOrolbai
66 C+
IQ
66 C+
71 B
Ground
82 B+
62 C+
Defense
63 C+
47 D
Counter
49 D
56 C
Reaction
50 C
40 D
Agility
52 C
57 C
TD react
36 D
82 B+
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
26%
Submission
26%
Decision
48%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Takedown reaction

    73% vs 50% hips on the shot

    Wells

  • Striking differential

    -1.43 vs -0.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Orolbai

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Orolbai

  • Ground game (tape)

    71 vs 82

    Orolbai

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Orolbai

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 60%

    Orolbai

  • Damage ratio

    0.62 vs 0.77 landed/absorbed

    Orolbai

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 28

    Orolbai

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.35 vs 2.78

    Orolbai

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Wells

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 73% vs 50%

    Wells

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 49

    Orolbai

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Orolbai

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 62%

    Wells

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets wrestler. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Wells

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Orolbai

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Orolbai

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Orolbai

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Wells

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 74.0"

    Wells

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Wells

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Wells

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Wells

Tape

WellsMetricOrolbai
2.35SLpM2.78
3.78SApM3.63
55%Str Acc60%
63%Str Def62%
3.06TD Avg8.77
47%TD Acc59%
73%TD Def50%
1.31Sub Avg0.49
0.29KD/150.14
6'2"Reach6'2"
39Age28

Jeremiah Wells

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Myktybek Orolbai

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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