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UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Levi Rodrigues Jr. 70% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Felipe Franco / KO/TKO)

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Felipe Franco

Levi Rodrigues Jr.
BrazilBrazil

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

“Baby Monster”

Unranked · 5-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 66

Inside Muay Thai · Brazil

VS
Felipe Franco
BrazilBrazil

Felipe Franco

“Negao”

Unranked · 11-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ B 69

Galpao Da Luta · Brazil

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

69.9%

Felipe Franco

30.1%

Model win probability · confidence 65%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Rodrigues Jr. 70 — the tape favors pocket striker

Levi Rodrigues Jr. is the model side at 69.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Franco (ground 50) into Jr. (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Franco 50 (D) vs Rodrigues Jr. 12 (D). Franco brings 3.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodrigues Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Franco

    Franco 50 (D) vs Rodrigues Jr. 12 (D). Franco brings 3.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodrigues Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 68 (C+) vs Franco 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rodrigues Jr. (4.5 SLpM at 89%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 69 (B) vs Franco 51 (C). When the shot comes, Rodrigues Jr. stuffs it at 85% — Franco is at 73%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Jr.

    Rodrigues Jr. 67 (C+) vs Franco 61 (C+). Rodrigues Jr. absorbs 3.02/min at 59% defense; Franco is a softer target at 3.97 SApM.

Path · Jr.

Rodrigues Jr. has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Franco

Franco has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Rodrigues Jr. defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Rodrigues Jr. is built as: Pocket striker. Franco is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Franco — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Franco 50 (D) vs Rodrigues Jr. 12 (D). Franco brings 3.0 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Rodrigues Jr.'s 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Rodrigues Jr. 68 (C+) vs Franco 50 (C). Hand speed / output lean Rodrigues Jr. (4.5 SLpM at 89%). Takedown reaction: Rodrigues Jr. 69 (B) vs Franco 51 (C). When the shot comes, Rodrigues Jr. stuffs it at 85% — Franco is at 73%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

Jr.TraitFranco
66 C+
IQ
69 B
12 D
Ground
50 D
67 C+
Defense
61 C+
54 C
Counter
51 C
65 C+
Reaction
61 C+
68 C+
Agility
50 C
69 B
TD react
51 C
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
21%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Franco (ground 50) into Jr. (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    1.48 vs -2.16 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jr.

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 50

    Franco

  • Damage ratio

    1.49 vs 0.46 landed/absorbed

    Jr.

  • Striking efficiency

    89% vs 65%

    Jr.

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.50 vs 1.81

    Jr.

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 73% hips on the shot

    Jr.

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Franco

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jr.

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 64%

    Franco

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Franco

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Jr.

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Franco (ground 50) into Jr. (TD reaction 69).

    Franco

  • Counter punching

    54 vs 51

    Jr.

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jr.

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jr.

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jr.

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 73%

    Jr.

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 25

    Franco

  • Reach / length

    76.5" vs 76.0"

    Jr.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Franco

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jr.

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jr.

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jr.

Tape

Jr.MetricFranco
4.50SLpM1.81
3.02SApM3.97
89%Str Acc65%
59%Str Def64%
0.00TD Avg3.02
0%TD Acc38%
85%TD Def73%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.22
6'5"Reach6'4"
29Age25

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Felipe Franco

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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