OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Fatima Kline 69% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Fatima Kline / Decision - Unanimous)

Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline

Tabatha Ricci
BrazilBrazil

Tabatha Ricci

“Baby Shark”

Unranked · 12-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 62

Paragon BJJ · Brazil

VS
Fatima Kline
USAUSA

Fatima Kline

“The Archangel”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 68

MK Muay Thai · USA

Tabatha Ricci

31.3%

Fatima Kline

68.7%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Kline 69 — the tape favors pocket striker

Fatima Kline is the model side at 68.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Kline 64 (C+) vs Ricci 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kline (4.9 SLpM at 52%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Kline

    Kline 64 (C+) vs Ricci 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kline (4.9 SLpM at 52%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Kline

    Kline 56 (C) vs Ricci 43 (D). Kline brings 3.1 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Ricci's 76% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Kline

    Kline 68 (B) vs Ricci 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Kline (B vs C+).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Kline

    Kline 45 (D) vs Ricci 39 (D). Kline's return is the live one (0.51 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Ricci's entries.

Path · Ricci

Ricci has to stuff the first takedown (65 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Kline

Kline has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ricci defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Kline is built as: Pocket striker. Ricci is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Kline — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Kline 64 (C+) vs Ricci 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Kline (4.9 SLpM at 52%). Ground game: Kline 56 (C) vs Ricci 43 (D). Kline brings 3.1 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Ricci's 76% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Kline 68 (B) vs Ricci 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Kline (B vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

RicciTraitKline
62 C+
IQ
68 B
43 D
Ground
56 C
65 C+
Defense
68 C+
39 D
Counter
45 D
62 C+
Reaction
64 C+
47 D
Agility
64 C+
65 C+
TD react
64 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
15%
Decision
56%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

12%

R3

13%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.3 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    0.49 vs 1.99 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kline

  • Damage ratio

    1.15 vs 1.69 landed/absorbed

    Kline

  • Ground game (tape)

    43 vs 56

    Kline

  • Reach / length

    61.0" vs 67.5"

    Kline

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.77 vs 4.88

    Kline

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kline

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Kline

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs B 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Kline

  • Striking efficiency

    45% vs 52%

    Kline

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Kline

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 45

    Kline

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 58%

    Ricci

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Kline

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 26

    Kline

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Kline

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 72% hips on the shot

    Ricci

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Kline

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 72%

    Ricci

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Ricci

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Ricci

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ricci

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ricci

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ricci

Tape

RicciMetricKline
3.77SLpM4.88
3.28SApM2.89
45%Str Acc52%
60%Str Def58%
2.37TD Avg3.13
35%TD Acc67%
76%TD Def72%
0.09Sub Avg0.22
0.16KD/150.51
5'1"Reach5'8"
31Age26

Tabatha Ricci

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Fatima Kline

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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