OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jose Miguel Delgado 86% · KO/TKO · Distance · scored hit (Jose Miguel Delgado / Decision - Unanimous)

Austin Bashi vs Jose Miguel Delgado

Austin Bashi
USAUSA

Austin Bashi

Unranked · 14-2 · wrestler · Orthodox · 24 · IQ B 72

Warrior Way Martial Arts · USA

VS
Jose Miguel Delgado
MexicoMexico

Jose Miguel Delgado

Unranked · 12-2 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ B 72

MMA LAB · Mexico

Austin Bashi

13.9%

Jose Miguel Delgado

86.1%

Model win probability · confidence 83%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Delgado 86 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Jose Miguel Delgado is the model side at 86.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Delgado (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Bashi 90 (A) vs Delgado 37 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Delgado's 79% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Bashi

    Bashi 90 (A) vs Delgado 37 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Delgado's 79% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Delgado

    Delgado 81 (B+) vs Bashi 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Delgado (7.5 SLpM at 57%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Delgado

    Delgado 68 (C+) vs Bashi 50 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Delgado.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Delgado

    Delgado 67 (C+) vs Bashi 50 (C). When the shot comes, Delgado stuffs it at 79% — Bashi is at 54%.

Path · Bashi

Bashi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Delgado defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Delgado

Delgado has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Bashi attacking ground game with ground game.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Delgado is built as: Volume pressure striker. Bashi is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is -1 toward Bashi — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Bashi 90 (A) vs Delgado 37 (D). Bashi brings 7.8 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Delgado's 79% takedown defense. Punching agility: Delgado 81 (B+) vs Bashi 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Delgado (7.5 SLpM at 57%). Timing & reaction: Delgado 68 (C+) vs Bashi 50 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Delgado.

The finish path leans strikes (35% KO/TKO vs 31% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Bashi attacking ground game with ground game. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BashiTraitDelgado
72 B
IQ
72 B
90 A
Ground
37 D
61 C+
Defense
73 B
45 D
Counter
38 D
50 D
Reaction
68 C+
42 D
Agility
81 B+
50 C
TD react
67 C+
80 B+
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
35%
Submission
31%
Decision
35%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

18%

R3

19%

Dist

35%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Delgado (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -2.24 vs 5.50 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Delgado

  • Damage ratio

    0.44 vs 3.78 landed/absorbed

    Delgado

  • Ground game (tape)

    90 vs 37

    Bashi

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.75 vs 7.48

    Delgado

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Bashi

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Delgado

  • Striking defense

    65% vs 53%

    Bashi

  • Takedown reaction

    54% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Delgado

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Delgado

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Delgado

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 73.0"

    Delgado

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 38

    Bashi

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Bashi (ground 90) into Delgado (TD reaction 67). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Bashi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Delgado

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 54% vs 79%

    Delgado

  • Striking efficiency

    59% vs 57%

    Bashi

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Delgado

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 28

    Bashi

  • Fight IQ

    B 72 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Bashi

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Bashi

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Bashi

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Bashi

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Bashi

Tape

BashiMetricDelgado
1.75SLpM7.48
3.99SApM1.98
59%Str Acc57%
65%Str Def53%
7.81TD Avg1.51
41%TD Acc40%
54%TD Def79%
1.67Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.60
5'10"Reach6'1"
24Age28

Austin Bashi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jose Miguel Delgado

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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