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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jefferson Nascimento 52% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Tahir Abdullayev / KO/TKO)

Tahir Abdullayev vs Jefferson Nascimento

Tahir Abdullayev
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Tahir Abdullayev

“Tank”

Unranked · 20-3 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C+ 64

Phuket Top Team · Azerbaijan

VS
Jefferson Nascimento
BrazilBrazil

Jefferson Nascimento

“Toddynho”

Unranked · 13-1 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ B 71

Renovacao Fight Team · Brazil

Tahir Abdullayev

47.9%

Jefferson Nascimento

52.1%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Nascimento 52 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Jefferson Nascimento is the model side at 52.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Nascimento 69 (B) vs Abdullayev 59 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 85% — Abdullayev is at 85%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 69 (B) vs Abdullayev 59 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 85% — Abdullayev is at 85%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 71 (B) vs Abdullayev 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nascimento (B vs C+).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Nascimento

    Nascimento 85 (A) vs Abdullayev 82 (B+). Nascimento has been finished by strikes 0 times; Abdullayev 0.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Abdullayev

    Abdullayev 18 (D) vs Nascimento 16 (D). Abdullayev brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Nascimento's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Abdullayev

Abdullayev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Nascimento a long look at durability.

Path · Nascimento

Nascimento wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Abdullayev a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Nascimento is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Abdullayev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Nascimento — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Nascimento 69 (B) vs Abdullayev 59 (C). When the shot comes, Nascimento stuffs it at 85% — Abdullayev is at 85%. Fight IQ: Nascimento 71 (B) vs Abdullayev 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Nascimento (B vs C+). Durability: Nascimento 85 (A) vs Abdullayev 82 (B+). Nascimento has been finished by strikes 0 times; Abdullayev 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (59%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AbdullayevTraitNascimento
64 C+
IQ
71 B
18 D
Ground
16 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
38 D
Counter
37 D
60 C
Reaction
59 C
39 D
Agility
39 D
59 C
TD react
69 B
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
20%
Decision
59%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

16%

R2

11%

R3

13%

Dist

59%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nascimento

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Nascimento

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 70.0"

    Abdullayev

  • Ground game (tape)

    18 vs 16

    Abdullayev

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nascimento

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nascimento

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 27

    Nascimento

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 37

    Abdullayev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Abdullayev

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Abdullayev

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Abdullayev

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Abdullayev

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Abdullayev

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Abdullayev

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Abdullayev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Abdullayev

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Abdullayev

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Abdullayev

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Abdullayev

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Abdullayev

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Abdullayev

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Abdullayev

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Abdullayev

Tape

AbdullayevMetricNascimento
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.12KD/150.10
6'1"Reach5'10"
29Age27

Tahir Abdullayev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Jefferson Nascimento

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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