OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Daniil Donchenko 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Daniil Donchenko / KO/TKO)

Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren

Daniil Donchenko
UkraineUkraine

Daniil Donchenko

Unranked · 15-2 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C+ 65

Tiger Muay Thai · Ukraine

VS
Theodor Berggren
SwedenSweden

Theodor Berggren

“Simba”

Unranked · 8-4 · hybrid · -- · 26 · IQ C 58

Renyi · Sweden

Daniil Donchenko

91.0%

Theodor Berggren

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Donchenko 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Daniil Donchenko is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Donchenko 81 (B+) vs Berggren 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Donchenko (7.2 SLpM at 62%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Donchenko

    Donchenko 81 (B+) vs Berggren 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Donchenko (7.2 SLpM at 62%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Donchenko

    Donchenko 73 (B) vs Berggren 57 (C). Donchenko absorbs 2.10/min at 54% defense; Berggren is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Donchenko

    Donchenko 65 (C+) vs Berggren 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Donchenko (C+ vs C).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Donchenko

    Donchenko 25 (D) vs Berggren 19 (D). Donchenko brings 0.8 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Berggren's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Donchenko

Volume. Donchenko wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Berggren a clean reset.

Path · Berggren

Berggren wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Donchenko a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Berggren attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Donchenko is built as: Volume pressure striker. Berggren is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Donchenko — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Donchenko 81 (B+) vs Berggren 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Donchenko (7.2 SLpM at 62%). Striking defense: Donchenko 73 (B) vs Berggren 57 (C). Donchenko absorbs 2.10/min at 54% defense; Berggren is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Fight IQ: Donchenko 65 (C+) vs Berggren 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Donchenko (C+ vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Berggren attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DonchenkoTraitBerggren
65 C+
IQ
58 C
25 D
Ground
19 D
73 B
Defense
57 C
38 D
Counter
37 D
66 C+
Reaction
59 C
81 B+
Agility
39 D
68 C+
TD react
61 C+
85 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
15%
Decision
56%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    5.05 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Donchenko

  • Damage ratio

    3.40 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Donchenko

  • Striking efficiency

    62% vs 0%

    Donchenko

  • Output (SLpM)

    7.15 vs 0.00

    Donchenko

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Donchenko

  • Striking defense

    54% vs 68%

    Berggren

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Donchenko

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Donchenko

  • Ground game (tape)

    25 vs 19

    Donchenko

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 75.0"

    Berggren

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Donchenko

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Donchenko

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Donchenko

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Donchenko

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Donchenko

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Donchenko

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Donchenko

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 37

    Donchenko

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 85%

    Berggren

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 26

    Donchenko

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Donchenko

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Donchenko

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Donchenko

Tape

DonchenkoMetricBerggren
7.15SLpM0.00
2.10SApM4.60
62%Str Acc0%
54%Str Def68%
0.77TD Avg0.00
33%TD Acc0%
82%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.33KD/150.10
5'11"Reach6'3"
25Age26

Daniil Donchenko

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Theodor Berggren

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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