OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Michael Oliveira 88% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Michael Oliveira / KO/TKO)

Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira

Oban Elliott
WalesWales

Oban Elliott

“The Welsh Gangster”

Unranked · 12-5 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 63

Shore Mixed Martial Arts Centre of Excellence · Wales

VS
Michael Oliveira
BrazilBrazil

Michael Oliveira

“PQD”

Unranked · 10-0 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 63

KO Squad MMA · Brazil

Oban Elliott

12.3%

Michael Oliveira

87.7%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Oliveira 88 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Michael Oliveira is the model side at 87.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Elliott (ground 36) into Oliveira (TD reaction 69). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Oliveira 78 (B+) vs Elliott 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (8.4 SLpM at 52%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 78 (B+) vs Elliott 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (8.4 SLpM at 52%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Elliott

    Elliott 36 (D) vs Oliveira 12 (D). Elliott brings 1.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Oliveira's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Elliott

    Elliott 46 (D) vs Oliveira 32 (D). Elliott's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Oliveira's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 73 (B) vs Elliott 64 (C+). Oliveira absorbs 1.66/min at 51% defense; Elliott is a softer target at 3.33 SApM.

Path · Elliott

Elliott has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Oliveira defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Oliveira

Oliveira has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Elliott attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Oliveira is built as: Volume pressure striker. Elliott is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Oliveira — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Oliveira 78 (B+) vs Elliott 53 (C). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (8.4 SLpM at 52%). Ground game: Elliott 36 (D) vs Oliveira 12 (D). Elliott brings 1.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Oliveira's 85% takedown defense. Counter punching: Elliott 46 (D) vs Oliveira 32 (D). Elliott's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Oliveira's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Elliott attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ElliottTraitOliveira
63 C+
IQ
63 C+
36 D
Ground
12 D
64 C+
Defense
73 B
46 D
Counter
32 D
63 C+
Reaction
70 B
53 C
Agility
78 B+
61 C+
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Decision
47%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

14%

R3

15%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Elliott (ground 36) into Oliveira (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    0.29 vs 6.74 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Oliveira

  • Damage ratio

    1.09 vs 5.06 landed/absorbed

    Oliveira

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.62 vs 8.40

    Oliveira

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 12

    Elliott

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 51%

    Elliott

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Oliveira

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 78.5"

    Oliveira

  • Counter punching

    46 vs 32

    Elliott

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Oliveira

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Oliveira

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Oliveira

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Elliott

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Oliveira

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Elliott (ground 36) into Oliveira (TD reaction 69).

    Elliott

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Oliveira

  • Striking efficiency

    54% vs 52%

    Elliott

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 85%

    Oliveira

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Oliveira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Elliott

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 28

    Elliott

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Elliott

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Elliott

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Elliott

Tape

ElliottMetricOliveira
3.62SLpM8.40
3.33SApM1.66
54%Str Acc52%
61%Str Def51%
1.52TD Avg0.00
40%TD Acc0%
79%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.16KD/150.56
6'0"Reach6'7"
28Age28

Oban Elliott

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Michael Oliveira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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