OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Alden Coria 69% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Alden Coria / Decision - Unanimous)

Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll

Alden Coria
USAUSA

Alden Coria

“Cobra”

Unranked · 13-3 · grappler · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C+ 63

4oz Fight Club · USA

VS
Stewart Nicoll
AustraliaAustralia

Stewart Nicoll

“Kakamora”

Unranked · 8-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 58

Broz Martial Arts · Australia

Alden Coria

69.4%

Stewart Nicoll

30.6%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Coria 69 — the tape favors submission hunter

Alden Coria is the model side at 69.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Nicoll (TD reaction 57). Ground game is the clearest separator: Coria 67 (C+) vs Nicoll 45 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Nicoll's 74% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Coria

    Coria 67 (C+) vs Nicoll 45 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Nicoll's 74% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Coria

    Coria 53 (C) vs Nicoll 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Coria (4.0 SLpM at 50%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Coria

    Coria 42 (D) vs Nicoll 33 (D). Coria's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Nicoll's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Coria

    Coria 63 (C+) vs Nicoll 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Coria (C+ vs C).

Path · Coria

Coria has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nicoll defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Nicoll

Nicoll has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Coria is built as: Submission hunter. Nicoll is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Coria — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Coria 67 (C+) vs Nicoll 45 (D). Coria brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Nicoll's 74% takedown defense. Punching agility: Coria 53 (C) vs Nicoll 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Coria (4.0 SLpM at 50%). Counter punching: Coria 42 (D) vs Nicoll 33 (D). Coria's return is the live one (0.16 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Nicoll's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CoriaTraitNicoll
63 C+
IQ
58 C
67 C+
Ground
45 D
65 C+
Defense
63 C+
42 D
Counter
33 D
62 C+
Reaction
60 C+
53 C
Agility
39 D
56 C
TD react
57 C
84 A
Chin
82 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
37%
Decision
41%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

19%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Nicoll (TD reaction 57).

  • Striking differential

    0.87 vs -0.54 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Coria

  • Ground game (tape)

    67 vs 45

    Coria

  • Damage ratio

    1.27 vs 0.85 landed/absorbed

    Coria

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Coria

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 39%

    Coria

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.05 vs 3.01

    Coria

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Coria

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Coria

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 33

    Coria

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Coria (ground 67) into Nicoll (TD reaction 57).

    Coria

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Coria

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 62%

    Nicoll

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 65.5"

    Coria

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Coria

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 74% hips on the shot

    Nicoll

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 31

    Coria

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Coria

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Coria

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Coria

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 74%

    Coria

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Coria

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Coria

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Coria

Tape

CoriaMetricNicoll
4.05SLpM3.01
3.18SApM3.55
50%Str Acc39%
60%Str Def62%
2.21TD Avg2.82
55%TD Acc23%
76%TD Def74%
1.47Sub Avg0.00
0.16KD/150.10
5'7"Reach5'6"
28Age31

Alden Coria

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Stewart Nicoll

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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