OctagonEdge

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Women's Strawweight · 5 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gillian Robertson 70% · Submission · Distance · scored miss (Mackenzie Dern / Decision - Unanimous)

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson

Mackenzie Dern
BrazilBrazil

Mackenzie Dern

#7 · 17-5 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 63

RVCA · Brazil

VS
Gillian Robertson
CanadaCanada

Gillian Robertson

“The Savage”

Unranked · 17-9 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 64

The Goat Shed · Canada

Mackenzie Dern

29.6%

Gillian Robertson

70.4%

Model win probability · confidence 67%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Robertson 70 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Gillian Robertson is the model side at 70.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Robertson (ground 63) into Dern (TD reaction 67). Striking defense is the clearest separator: Robertson 62 (C+) vs Dern 36 (D). Robertson absorbs 3.65/min at 63% defense; Dern is a softer target at 4.52 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Robertson

    Robertson 62 (C+) vs Dern 36 (D). Robertson absorbs 3.65/min at 63% defense; Dern is a softer target at 4.52 SApM.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Robertson

    Robertson 63 (C+) vs Dern 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Robertson.

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Robertson

    Robertson 63 (C+) vs Dern 44 (D). Robertson brings 2.8 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Dern's 81% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Robertson

    Robertson 50 (C) vs Dern 35 (D). Robertson's return is the live one (0.32 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Dern's entries.

Path · Dern

Dern has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Robertson

Robertson has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Dern defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Robertson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Dern is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Robertson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Robertson 62 (C+) vs Dern 36 (D). Robertson absorbs 3.65/min at 63% defense; Dern is a softer target at 4.52 SApM. Timing & reaction: Robertson 63 (C+) vs Dern 40 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Robertson. Ground game: Robertson 63 (C+) vs Dern 44 (D). Robertson brings 2.8 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Dern's 81% takedown defense.

The finish path leans the mat (40% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DernTraitRobertson
63 C+
IQ
64 C+
44 D
Ground
63 C+
36 D
Defense
62 C+
35 D
Counter
50 C
40 D
Reaction
63 C+
44 D
Agility
52 C
67 C+
TD react
62 C+
72 B
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
40%
Decision
32%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

19%

R3

14%

R4

4%

R5

4%

Dist

32%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 13.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Robertson (ground 63) into Dern (TD reaction 67).

  • Striking defense

    40% vs 63%

    Robertson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 1/0 UFC rows

    Robertson

  • Ground game (tape)

    44 vs 63

    Robertson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs C+

    Robertson

  • Striking differential

    -1.56 vs -0.94 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Robertson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Robertson

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 50

    Robertson

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 58%

    Robertson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 76 vs 50

    Dern

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Robertson

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 74% hips on the shot

    Dern

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Robertson

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.16 vs 2.71

    Dern

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Dern

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Robertson (ground 63) into Dern (TD reaction 67).

    Robertson

  • Damage ratio

    0.67 vs 0.74 landed/absorbed

    Robertson

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Robertson

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Robertson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 31

    Robertson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Robertson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 74%

    Dern

  • Reach / length

    63.0" vs 63.0"

    Dern

  • Championship / 5-round

    Five-round experience matters

    Dern

Tape

DernMetricRobertson
3.47SLpM2.71
4.52SApM3.65
55%Str Acc58%
42%Str Def63%
0.93TD Avg2.76
18%TD Acc41%
81%TD Def74%
1.06Sub Avg0.87
0.00KD/150.32
5'3"Reach5'3"
33Age31

Mackenzie Dern

L

Yan Xiaonan

Decision - Majority · R5 5:00

Oct 1, 2022

Gillian Robertson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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