OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Vinicius Oliveira 66% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Vinicius Oliveira / KO/TKO)

Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili

Vinicius Oliveira
BrazilBrazil

Vinicius Oliveira

“LokDog”

Unranked · 24-4 · striker · Switch · 30 · IQ C 59

Sombra Team MMA · Brazil

VS
Andre Fili
USAUSA

Andre Fili

“Touchy”

Unranked · 25-14 · hybrid · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 53

Team Alpha Male · USA

Vinicius Oliveira

66.0%

Andre Fili

34.0%

Model win probability · confidence 60%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Oliveira 66 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Vinicius Oliveira is the model side at 66.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Oliveira 64 (C+) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (5.4 SLpM at 50%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 64 (C+) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (5.4 SLpM at 50%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Fili

    Fili 45 (D) vs Oliveira 34 (D). Fili brings 2.3 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Oliveira's 80% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 65 (C+) vs Fili 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Oliveira.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 59 (C) vs Fili 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Oliveira (C vs C).

Path · Oliveira

Oliveira has to stuff the first takedown (60 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Fili

Fili has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Oliveira defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Oliveira is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fili is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Oliveira — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Oliveira 64 (C+) vs Fili 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Oliveira (5.4 SLpM at 50%). Ground game: Fili 45 (D) vs Oliveira 34 (D). Fili brings 2.3 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Oliveira's 80% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Oliveira 65 (C+) vs Fili 57 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Oliveira.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (59%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

OliveiraTraitFili
59 C
IQ
53 C
34 D
Ground
45 D
69 B
Defense
65 C+
38 D
Counter
38 D
65 C+
Reaction
57 C
64 C+
Agility
42 D
60 C
TD react
59 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Decision
59%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

11%

R3

12%

Dist

59%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.6 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    2.74 vs 0.64 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Oliveira

  • Damage ratio

    2.01 vs 1.20 landed/absorbed

    Oliveira

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.44 vs 3.88

    Oliveira

  • Ground game (tape)

    34 vs 45

    Fili

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Oliveira

  • Fight IQ

    C 59 vs C 53 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Oliveira

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 42%

    Oliveira

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 74.0"

    Fili

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Oliveira

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Fili

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 60%

    Fili

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Oliveira

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C+

    Oliveira

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 36

    Oliveira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Oliveira

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Oliveira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 76%

    Oliveira

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 76% hips on the shot

    Oliveira

  • Counter punching

    38 vs 38

    Fili

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Oliveira

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Oliveira

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Oliveira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Oliveira

Tape

OliveiraMetricFili
5.44SLpM3.88
2.70SApM3.24
50%Str Acc42%
57%Str Def60%
1.27TD Avg2.32
44%TD Acc47%
80%TD Def76%
0.18Sub Avg0.22
0.30KD/150.28
5'11"Reach6'2"
30Age36

Vinicius Oliveira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Andre Fili

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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