OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Otari Tanzilovi 91% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Shane Collins / Decision - Unanimous)

Shane Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi

Shane Collins
USAUSA

Shane Collins

“Hollywood”

Unranked · 8-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C+ 68

Team Cobra MMA · USA

VS
Otari Tanzilovi
GeorgiaGeorgia

Otari Tanzilovi

Unranked · 10-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 74

Guram Fight Club · Georgia

Shane Collins

9.2%

Otari Tanzilovi

90.8%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Tanzilovi 91 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Otari Tanzilovi is the model side at 90.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Collins (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Tanzilovi 49 (D) vs Collins 14 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Collins's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Tanzilovi

    Tanzilovi 49 (D) vs Collins 14 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Collins's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Tanzilovi

    Tanzilovi 68 (B) vs Collins 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Tanzilovi (4.5 SLpM at 75%).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Tanzilovi

    Tanzilovi 54 (C) vs Collins 37 (D). Tanzilovi's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Collins's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Tanzilovi

    Tanzilovi 67 (C+) vs Collins 57 (C). Tanzilovi absorbs 3.01/min at 59% defense; Collins is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Collins

Collins has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Tanzilovi

Tanzilovi has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Collins defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Collins attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Tanzilovi is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Collins is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward Tanzilovi — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Tanzilovi 49 (D) vs Collins 14 (D). Tanzilovi brings 4.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Collins's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Tanzilovi 68 (B) vs Collins 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Tanzilovi (4.5 SLpM at 75%). Counter punching: Tanzilovi 54 (C) vs Collins 37 (D). Tanzilovi's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Collins's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (65%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Collins attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CollinsTraitTanzilovi
68 C+
IQ
74 B
14 D
Ground
49 D
57 C
Defense
67 C+
37 D
Counter
54 C
59 C
Reaction
58 C
39 D
Agility
68 B
69 B
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
16%
Decision
65%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

14%

R2

10%

R3

12%

Dist

65%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.2 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Collins (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 1.52 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Tanzilovi

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 75%

    Tanzilovi

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 1.50 landed/absorbed

    Tanzilovi

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 4.53

    Tanzilovi

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 49

    Tanzilovi

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Tanzilovi

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 59%

    Collins

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Tanzilovi

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 54

    Tanzilovi

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs B 74 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Tanzilovi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Tanzilovi

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 69% hips on the shot

    Collins

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Collins

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Tanzilovi (ground 49) into Collins (TD reaction 69).

    Tanzilovi

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Tanzilovi

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 69%

    Collins

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 70.0"

    Collins

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Collins

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 28

    Collins

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Collins

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Collins

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Collins

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Collins

Tape

CollinsMetricTanzilovi
0.00SLpM4.53
4.60SApM3.01
0%Str Acc75%
68%Str Def59%
0.00TD Avg4.00
0%TD Acc25%
85%TD Def69%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach5'10"
26Age28

Shane Collins

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Otari Tanzilovi

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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