OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Leon Shahbazyan 91% · Submission · Round 1 · scored miss (Levan Chokheli / KO/TKO)

Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli

Leon Shahbazyan
ArmeniaArmenia

Leon Shahbazyan

Unranked · 12-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ D 49

Glendale Fighting Club · Armenia

VS
Levan Chokheli
GeorgiaGeorgia

Levan Chokheli

Unranked · 15-3 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 59

Kaizen MMA · Georgia

Leon Shahbazyan

91.0%

Levan Chokheli

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Shahbazyan 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Leon Shahbazyan is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Shahbazyan (ground 42) into Chokheli (TD reaction 59). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Shahbazyan 69 (B) vs Chokheli 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Shahbazyan (6.3 SLpM at 53%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Shahbazyan

    Shahbazyan 69 (B) vs Chokheli 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Shahbazyan (6.3 SLpM at 53%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Shahbazyan

    Shahbazyan 42 (D) vs Chokheli 12 (D). Shahbazyan brings 1.5 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Chokheli's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Chokheli

    Chokheli 85 (A) vs Shahbazyan 66 (C+). Chokheli has been finished by strikes 0 times; Shahbazyan 0.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Shahbazyan

    Shahbazyan 73 (B) vs Chokheli 57 (C). Shahbazyan absorbs 2.38/min at 55% defense; Chokheli is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Chokheli defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Chokheli

Chokheli has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chokheli attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Shahbazyan is built as: Volume pressure striker. Chokheli is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -10 toward Chokheli — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Shahbazyan 69 (B) vs Chokheli 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Shahbazyan (6.3 SLpM at 53%). Ground game: Shahbazyan 42 (D) vs Chokheli 12 (D). Shahbazyan brings 1.5 TD/15 and 11 sub wins into Chokheli's 85% takedown defense. Durability: Chokheli 85 (A) vs Shahbazyan 66 (C+). Chokheli has been finished by strikes 0 times; Shahbazyan 0.

The finish path leans the mat (52% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chokheli attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ShahbazyanTraitChokheli
49 D
IQ
59 C
42 D
Ground
12 D
73 B
Defense
57 C
32 D
Counter
38 D
62 C+
Reaction
60 C
69 B
Agility
39 D
67 C+
TD react
59 C
66 C+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
52%
Decision
26%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

30%

R2

21%

R3

24%

Dist

26%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Shahbazyan (ground 42) into Chokheli (TD reaction 59).

  • Striking differential

    3.95 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Shahbazyan

  • Damage ratio

    2.66 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Shahbazyan

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 0%

    Shahbazyan

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.33 vs 0.00

    Shahbazyan

  • Ground game (tape)

    42 vs 12

    Shahbazyan

  • Striking defense

    55% vs 68%

    Chokheli

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Shahbazyan

  • Fight IQ

    D 49 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Chokheli

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Shahbazyan

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Chokheli

  • Takedown reaction

    79% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Shahbazyan

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Shahbazyan

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Shahbazyan (ground 42) into Chokheli (TD reaction 59).

    Shahbazyan

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Shahbazyan

  • Counter punching

    32 vs 38

    Chokheli

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Chokheli

  • Reach / length

    74.5" vs 73.0"

    Shahbazyan

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Shahbazyan

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 29

    Chokheli

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 85%

    Chokheli

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Shahbazyan

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Shahbazyan

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Shahbazyan

Tape

ShahbazyanMetricChokheli
6.33SLpM0.00
2.38SApM4.60
53%Str Acc0%
55%Str Def68%
1.46TD Avg0.00
50%TD Acc0%
79%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.15
6'3"Reach6'1"
30Age29

Leon Shahbazyan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Levan Chokheli

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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