Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

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Style and location. Wrestling attempts get stuffed; the fight leaks back to the feet. Pinto is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — high-IQ problem solver, live counter. Spann is built as: Submission hunter — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +29 toward Pinto — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Pinto 79 (B+) vs Spann 28 (D). Pinto's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 6 KOs) against Spann's entries. Punching agility: Pinto 65 (C+) vs Spann 27 (D). Hand speed / output lean Pinto (2.9 SLpM at 82%). Striking defense: Pinto 63 (C+) vs Spann 28 (D). Pinto absorbs 3.60/min at 62% defense; Spann is a softer target at 6.60 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (50% KO/TKO vs 14% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Spann attacking ground game with takedown reaction. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.