UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Lightweight · 5 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dan Hooker 54% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse
New ZealandDan Hooker
“The Hangman”
#6 · 24-14 · striker · Switch · 36 · IQ C 59
City Kickboxing · New Zealand
Dan Hooker
54.4%
Salahdine Parnasse
45.6%
Model win probability · confidence 62%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Hooker 54 — the tape favors pocket striker
Dan Hooker is the model side at 54.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Hooker (ground 34) into Parnasse (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Parnasse 69 (B) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Parnasse stuffs it at 85% — Hooker is at 50%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
ParnasseParnasse 69 (B) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Parnasse stuffs it at 85% — Hooker is at 50%.
- 02
Timing & reaction
ParnasseParnasse 59 (C) vs Hooker 21 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Parnasse.
- 03
Striking defense
ParnasseParnasse 57 (C) vs Hooker 37 (D). Parnasse absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Hooker is a softer target at 4.20 SApM.
- 04
Ground game
HookerHooker 34 (D) vs Parnasse 17 (D). Hooker brings 0.7 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Parnasse's 85% takedown defense.
Path · Hooker
Hooker has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Parnasse defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Parnasse
Parnasse has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 37 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Hooker is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Parnasse is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -11 toward Parnasse — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Parnasse 69 (B) vs Hooker 22 (D). When the shot comes, Parnasse stuffs it at 85% — Hooker is at 50%. Timing & reaction: Parnasse 59 (C) vs Hooker 21 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Parnasse. Striking defense: Parnasse 57 (C) vs Hooker 37 (D). Parnasse absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Hooker is a softer target at 4.20 SApM.
The finish path leans strikes (31% KO/TKO vs 29% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
26%
R2
16%
R3
12%
R4
2%
R5
3%
Dist
40%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 14.5 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Hooker (ground 34) into Parnasse (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-0.38 vs -3.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
HookerStriking defense
38% vs 70%
ParnasseTakedown reaction
50% vs 85% hips on the shot
ParnasseRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
ParnasseStriking efficiency
53% vs 22%
HookerDamage ratio
0.91 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed
HookerOutput (SLpM)
3.92 vs 0.60
HookerTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
ParnasseGround game (tape)
34 vs 17
HookerFight IQ
C 59 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
ParnassePocket defense (tape)
D vs C
ParnassePunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
HookerAge-adjusted curve
36 vs 28
ParnasseStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 65 vs 48
HookerCounter punching
43 vs 37
HookerStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Hooker (ground 34) into Parnasse (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
HookerReach / length
75.0" vs 73.0"
HookerDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
ParnasseCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
HookerGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
ParnasseTakedown mismatch
TD def 49% vs 87%
ParnasseLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
ParnasseChampionship / 5-round
Five-round experience matters
Hooker
Tape
Dan Hooker
Fighter 4895362
KO/TKO · R2 4:45
Arman Tsarukyan
Submission · R2 3:34
Fighter 3068125
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4339490
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4070701
KO/TKO · R2 4:06
Fighter 3902098
KO/TKO · R1 2:33
Salahdine Parnasse
Fighter 4683705
KO/TKO · R1 4:18
Fighter 2554001
KO/TKO · R2 3:35
Fighter 4334744
KO/TKO · R2 3:54
Fighter 5138110
KO/TKO · R2 1:00
Fighter 4013570
KO/TKO · R1 4:00
Fighter 5078907
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Your pick
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