OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Bogdan Grad 62% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Bogdan Grad / Submission)

Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad

Dennis Buzukja
USAUSA

Dennis Buzukja

“The Great”

Unranked · 12-7 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ C 52

Serra-Longo Fight Team · USA

VS
Bogdan Grad
AustriaAustria

Bogdan Grad

“The Unleashed”

Unranked · 16-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 71

ETTL Bros MMA · Austria

Dennis Buzukja

38.2%

Bogdan Grad

61.8%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Grad 62 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Bogdan Grad is the model side at 61.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Grad (ground 59) into Buzukja (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Grad 59 (C) vs Buzukja 25 (D). Grad brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Buzukja's 83% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Grad

    Grad 59 (C) vs Buzukja 25 (D). Grad brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Buzukja's 83% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Grad

    Grad 71 (B) vs Buzukja 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Grad (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Buzukja

    Buzukja 65 (C+) vs Grad 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Buzukja.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Grad

    Grad 46 (D) vs Buzukja 39 (D). Grad's return is the live one (0.14 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Buzukja's entries.

Path · Buzukja

Buzukja has to stuff the first takedown (64 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Grad

Grad has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Buzukja defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Grad is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Buzukja is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +19 toward Grad — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Grad 59 (C) vs Buzukja 25 (D). Grad brings 4.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Buzukja's 83% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Grad 71 (B) vs Buzukja 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Grad (B vs C). Timing & reaction: Buzukja 65 (C+) vs Grad 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Buzukja.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BuzukjaTraitGrad
52 C
IQ
71 B
25 D
Ground
59 C
66 C+
Defense
65 C+
39 D
Counter
46 D
65 C+
Reaction
58 C
52 C
Agility
57 C
64 C+
TD react
63 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
23%
Submission
25%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Grad (ground 59) into Buzukja (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    25 vs 59

    Grad

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Grad

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Grad

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 55%

    Grad

  • Striking differential

    1.08 vs 0.88 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Buzukja

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 46

    Grad

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Grad

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Buzukja

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Grad (ground 59) into Buzukja (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Grad

  • Damage ratio

    1.35 vs 1.28 landed/absorbed

    Buzukja

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Grad

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 68%

    Buzukja

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.21 vs 4.06

    Buzukja

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 70.0"

    Buzukja

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 68% hips on the shot

    Buzukja

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 60%

    Grad

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 30

    Buzukja

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Buzukja

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Buzukja

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Buzukja

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Buzukja

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Buzukja

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Buzukja

Tape

BuzukjaMetricGrad
4.21SLpM4.06
3.13SApM3.18
48%Str Acc55%
60%Str Def60%
0.62TD Avg4.22
27%TD Acc41%
83%TD Def68%
0.21Sub Avg0.00
0.15KD/150.14
5'11"Reach5'10"
28Age30

Dennis Buzukja

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Bogdan Grad

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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