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UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ludovit Klein 69% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Tofiq Musayev / KO/TKO)

Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev

Ludovit Klein
SlovakiaSlovakia

Ludovit Klein

“Mr. Highlight”

Unranked · 24-6-1 · striker · Southpaw · 31 · IQ C+ 65

Spartakus Fight Gym · Slovakia

VS
Tofiq Musayev
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

Tofiq Musayev

Unranked · 24-6 · hybrid · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C 58

Mammadaliyev's Fight School · Azerbaijan

Ludovit Klein

69.0%

Tofiq Musayev

31.0%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Klein 69 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ludovit Klein is the model side at 69.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Klein 59 (C) vs Musayev 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Klein (3.8 SLpM at 60%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Klein

    Klein 59 (C) vs Musayev 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Klein (3.8 SLpM at 60%).

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Klein

    Klein 64 (C+) vs Musayev 55 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Klein.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Klein

    Klein 52 (C) vs Musayev 44 (D). Klein's return is the live one (0.18 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Musayev's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Klein

    Klein 65 (C+) vs Musayev 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Klein (C+ vs C).

Path · Klein

Volume. Klein wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Musayev a clean reset.

Path · Musayev

Musayev wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Klein a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Klein is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Musayev is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Klein — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Klein 59 (C) vs Musayev 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Klein (3.8 SLpM at 60%). Timing & reaction: Klein 64 (C+) vs Musayev 55 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Klein. Counter punching: Klein 52 (C) vs Musayev 44 (D). Klein's return is the live one (0.18 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Musayev's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (30% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

KleinTraitMusayev
65 C+
IQ
58 C
39 D
Ground
44 D
65 C+
Defense
61 C+
52 C
Counter
44 D
64 C+
Reaction
55 C
59 C
Agility
39 D
57 C
TD react
52 C
83 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
30%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    0.48 vs -2.12 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Klein

  • Damage ratio

    1.15 vs 0.46 landed/absorbed

    Klein

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.76 vs 1.84

    Klein

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Klein

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 65 vs C 58 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Klein

  • Reach / length

    72.5" vs 69.0"

    Klein

  • Ground game (tape)

    39 vs 44

    Musayev

  • Counter punching

    52 vs 44

    Klein

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 64%

    Musayev

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Musayev

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Klein

  • Takedown reaction

    80% vs 76% hips on the shot

    Klein

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Klein

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 58%

    Klein

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 36

    Klein

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Klein

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Musayev

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Klein

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 80% vs 76%

    Klein

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Klein

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Klein

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Klein

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Klein

Tape

KleinMetricMusayev
3.76SLpM1.84
3.28SApM3.96
60%Str Acc58%
60%Str Def64%
1.37TD Avg2.30
52%TD Acc60%
80%TD Def76%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.18KD/150.10
6'1"Reach5'9"
31Age36

Ludovit Klein

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Tofiq Musayev

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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