OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gilbert Urbina 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Gilbert Urbina / KO/TKO)

Vlasto Čepo vs Gilbert Urbina

Vlasto Čepo
SerbiaSerbia

Vlasto Čepo

“El Chapo”

Unranked · 14-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 63

Spartakus Fight Gym · Serbia

VS
Gilbert Urbina
USAUSA

Gilbert Urbina

“The RGV Bad Boy”

Unranked · 8-5 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 64

BMF Ranch · USA

Vlasto Čepo

9.0%

Gilbert Urbina

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Urbina 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Gilbert Urbina is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Urbina (ground 57) into Čepo (TD reaction 61). Punching agility is the clearest separator: Urbina 85 (A) vs Čepo 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Urbina (6.7 SLpM at 65%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Urbina

    Urbina 85 (A) vs Čepo 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Urbina (6.7 SLpM at 65%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Urbina

    Urbina 57 (C) vs Čepo 17 (D). Urbina brings 2.7 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Čepo's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Urbina

    Urbina 73 (B) vs Čepo 57 (C). Urbina absorbs 2.26/min at 55% defense; Čepo is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Urbina

    Urbina 45 (D) vs Čepo 37 (D). Urbina's return is the live one (0.43 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Čepo's entries.

Path · Čepo

Čepo has to stuff the first takedown (61 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Urbina

Urbina has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Čepo defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Čepo attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Urbina is built as: Volume pressure striker. Čepo is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Urbina — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Urbina 85 (A) vs Čepo 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Urbina (6.7 SLpM at 65%). Ground game: Urbina 57 (C) vs Čepo 17 (D). Urbina brings 2.7 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Čepo's 85% takedown defense. Striking defense: Urbina 73 (B) vs Čepo 57 (C). Urbina absorbs 2.26/min at 55% defense; Čepo is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 28% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Čepo attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ČepoTraitUrbina
63 C+
IQ
64 C+
17 D
Ground
57 C
57 C
Defense
73 B
37 D
Counter
45 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
39 D
Agility
85 A
61 C+
TD react
59 C
84 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
34%
Submission
28%
Decision
38%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Urbina (ground 57) into Čepo (TD reaction 61).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 4.42 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Urbina

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 2.96 landed/absorbed

    Urbina

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 65%

    Urbina

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 6.68

    Urbina

  • Ground game (tape)

    17 vs 57

    Urbina

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Urbina

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 55%

    Čepo

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Urbina

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Urbina

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 45

    Urbina

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Urbina

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Čepo

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Urbina (ground 57) into Čepo (TD reaction 61).

    Urbina

  • Reach / length

    73.0" vs 75.0"

    Urbina

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Urbina

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 74% hips on the shot

    Čepo

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 74%

    Čepo

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Urbina

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Urbina

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 30

    Čepo

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Čepo

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Čepo

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Čepo

Tape

ČepoMetricUrbina
0.00SLpM6.68
4.60SApM2.26
0%Str Acc65%
68%Str Def55%
0.00TD Avg2.73
0%TD Acc44%
85%TD Def74%
0.00Sub Avg0.68
0.10KD/150.43
6'1"Reach6'3"
31Age30

Vlasto Čepo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Gilbert Urbina

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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