OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Javier Reyes 91% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Kaan Ofli / Submission)

Kaan Ofli vs Javier Reyes

Kaan Ofli
AustraliaAustralia

Kaan Ofli

“Genghis”

Unranked · 15-4-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 64

Australian Top Team · Australia

VS
Javier Reyes
ColombiaColombia

Javier Reyes

“Blair”

Unranked · 23-6 · striker · -- · 32 · IQ C+ 68

Bareknuckle MMA · Colombia

Kaan Ofli

9.0%

Javier Reyes

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Reyes 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Javier Reyes is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Reyes (ground 44) into Ofli (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Reyes 81 (B+) vs Ofli 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Reyes (8.9 SLpM at 65%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Reyes

    Reyes 81 (B+) vs Ofli 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Reyes (8.9 SLpM at 65%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Reyes

    Reyes 44 (D) vs Ofli 29 (D). Reyes brings 2.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Ofli's 83% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Ofli

    Ofli 68 (B) vs Reyes 56 (C). When the shot comes, Ofli stuffs it at 83% — Reyes is at 77%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Reyes

    Reyes 73 (B) vs Ofli 62 (C+). Reyes absorbs 1.48/min at 50% defense; Ofli is a softer target at 3.78 SApM.

Path · Ofli

Ofli has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Reyes

Reyes has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ofli defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ofli attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Reyes is built as: Volume pressure striker. Ofli is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Reyes — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Reyes 81 (B+) vs Ofli 41 (D). Hand speed / output lean Reyes (8.9 SLpM at 65%). Ground game: Reyes 44 (D) vs Ofli 29 (D). Reyes brings 2.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Ofli's 83% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Ofli 68 (B) vs Reyes 56 (C). When the shot comes, Ofli stuffs it at 83% — Reyes is at 77%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ofli attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

OfliTraitReyes
64 C+
IQ
68 C+
29 D
Ground
44 D
62 C+
Defense
73 B
41 D
Counter
36 D
65 C+
Reaction
62 C+
41 D
Agility
81 B+
68 B
TD react
56 C
77 B+
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
28%
Decision
48%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

17%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Reyes (ground 44) into Ofli (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.45 vs 7.43 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Reyes

  • Damage ratio

    0.62 vs 6.02 landed/absorbed

    Reyes

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.33 vs 8.91

    Reyes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Reyes

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 50%

    Ofli

  • Ground game (tape)

    29 vs 44

    Reyes

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 73.0"

    Reyes

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 65%

    Reyes

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Ofli

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Reyes

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Reyes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Reyes

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Reyes

  • Counter punching

    41 vs 36

    Ofli

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Reyes (ground 44) into Ofli (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Reyes

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Reyes

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ofli

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 77%

    Ofli

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Reyes

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 32

    Ofli

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Ofli

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ofli

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ofli

Tape

OfliMetricReyes
2.33SLpM8.91
3.78SApM1.48
53%Str Acc65%
63%Str Def50%
0.38TD Avg2.00
7%TD Acc50%
83%TD Def77%
0.38Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.19
5'6"Reach6'1"
33Age32

Kaan Ofli

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Javier Reyes

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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